Presented by Mark Gallagher

General market news  
• Rates have risen slightly on the long end of the curve. The 10-year U.S. Treasury opened Monday at 2.67 percent, while the 30-year opened at 3.03 percent. The short end of the curve remained unchanged, with the 2-year starting the week at 2.50 percent.
• The three major U.S. stock indices were all up on the week. The continued push toward a U.S.-China trade deal, along with dovish signals from the January Federal Open Market Committee minutes, benefited stocks. Trade talks continued to progress, with Vice Premier Liu He agreeing to extend his visit, and President Trump offering to push back the tariff deadline of March 1. Turning to the Federal Reserve, last week’s minutes indicated that most officials want to reduce the runoff of the balance sheet (which includes Treasury and debt securities) later this year.
• Emerging markets rebounded as a result of the continued dovish stance. This asset class typically contains U.S.-dollar-denominated debt, which is cheaper in lower rate environments. The same theme played out in the U.S.; utilities and materials were the two top-performing sectors on the week, as they are supported by lower interest levels on debt and a potentially higher inflationary environment. This did not translate over to energy, however, which lagged along with health care and financials.
• There were only a handful of major data releases during the holiday-shortened week. On Thursday, December’s durable goods orders were released. Demand was weaker than expected, with 1.2-percent headline growth against expectations for 1.8 percent. The core figure, which strips out the effect of volatile transportation orders, grew by only 0.1 percent.
• Also on Thursday, January’s existing home sales disappointed, with a drop of 1.2 percent. Economists had expected modest growth, but with this drop, existing home sales have now declined for four months in a row.

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Morningstar Direct

What to look forward to
This will be a busy week in terms of economic updates, as we continue to see the release of data that was delayed by the government shutdown. On Tuesday, December’s housing starts are set to be released. Economists expect starts to decline slightly, from 1,256,000 in November to 1,250,000. Homebuilder confidence declined sharply in December, so it is possible that housing starts may decline by more than expected. But homebuilder confidence has rebounded to start the year, so any weakness in housing starts would likely be temporary.

On Thursday, the first estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth will be released. This measure of overall economic activity is expected to show solid 2.5-percent growth on an annualized basis. This result would be down from the 3.4-percent annualized rate we saw in the third quarter. The slowdown in the fourth quarter was partially driven by a slowdown in consumer spending at year-end, as December’s retail sales suffered the biggest monthly drop since 2009. As was the case with homebuilders, consumers saw a large drop in confidence in December that likely lowered spending. Consumer confidence numbers have also bounced back to start the year, so this slowdown in consumer spending is likely not as bad as it seems.

Speaking of consumer spending, on Friday, we will see the release of January’s personal income report and December’s personal spending report. Both are expected to show moderate growth—with income expected to increase 0.3 percent and spending slated to rise by 0.2 percent. These would be solid results; however, both income and spending were growing at faster rates in the third quarter.

Finally, also on Friday, the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing index is expected to decline slightly, from 56.6 in January to 56 in February. This is a diffusion index, where results greater than 50 indicate expansion. As such, this slight decline is not a pressing concern. Continued trade talks with China have helped bolster manufacturer confidence in the face of slowing global trade, so this continued positive sentiment is very welcome.

Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg Barclays US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg Barclays US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million.

Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Ave. Suite #304, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com.

Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.

© 2019 Commonwealth Financial Network®

Presented by Mark Gallagher

General market news  
• Rates remained largely unchanged last week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury opened this morning at 2.64 percent, while the 30-year opened at 2.98 percent. Rates moved higher on the long end of the curve at the beginning of the week, but these increases were offset by declines on Thursday and Friday.
• All three major U.S. indices were up by more than 2 percent last week, supported by talks of trade progress and a bounce in oil. U.S. and China trade once again grabbed headlines, as talks are set to continue this week and President Trump suggested pushing back the March tariff deadline. Additionally, U.S. retail sales declined 1.2 percent month-over-month, which showed unexpected softness in the data. This is worth monitoring going forward, as both the U.S. and China are testing the resilience of their economies before the potential March trade.
• West Texas Intermediate crude was up more than 5 percent on the week, making energy the top-performing sector. This was followed by industrials and materials. The top underperformers were utilities, REITs, and communication services.
• Last week was relatively quiet on the economic update front, as there were only two major data releases. On Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management Nonmanufacturing index declined by more than expected, falling to 56.7. This is still a level that indicates economic expansion.
• On Wednesday, the international trade report for November showed an unexpected decline in the trade deficit. This was driven by a larger decline in imports than exports, as U.S. firms stockpiled imports earlier in the year in anticipation of increased tariffs.

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Morningstar Direct

What to look forward to
This week will be relatively quiet on the economic update front, with only two major releases scheduled for the holiday-shortened week. On Wednesday, the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) January meeting will be released. The Fed decided to keep rates unchanged in January, and the released statement removed language that spoke of future gradual rate hikes. This was a major change in the Fed’s policy, so economists are eager to see the discussions from the meeting.

On Thursday, December’s delayed durable goods orders are set to be released. Economists expect 1.7-percent growth in orders, driven by a large increase in aircraft orders for Boeing in December. The core index, which strips out volatile transportation orders, is expected to increase by a healthy 0.3 percent.

Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg Barclays US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg Barclays US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million.

Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Ave. Suite #304, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com.

Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.

© 2019 Commonwealth Financial Network®

Presented by Mark Gallagher

General market news  
• Rates continued to move lower last week, as the 10-year U.S. Treasury reached its lowest point in more than a month at 2.62 percent. The low for the 10-year in 2019 is 2.55 percent (on January 3). Over the past 12 months, the 10-year is down 20 basis points, standing as high as 3.23 percent last November. The longer end of the curve is pointing more and more toward an economic slowdown, as the 30-year broke below 3 percent on Monday morning.
• All three major U.S. indices were up slightly last week. The Nasdaq Composite led the way, posting a gain of 0.53 percent. This was supported by a rebound in large tech names, including Apple (AAPL), up 2.3 percent, and Microsoft (MSFT), up 2.8 percent on the week.
• The major news came from President Trump, as he stated that a meeting with Chinese President Xi will not take place before the March trade deal deadline. In other international news, the European Commission cut its eurozone forecast for 2019 to 1.3 percent from 1.9 percent. This comes following softer German manufacturing data for December.
• Last week was relatively quiet on the economic update front, as there were only two major data releases. On Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management Nonmanufacturing index declined by more than expected, falling to 56.7. This is still a level that indicates economic expansion.
• On Wednesday, the international trade report for November showed an unexpected decline in the trade deficit. This was driven by a larger decline in imports than exports as U.S. firms stockpiled imports earlier in the year in anticipation of increased tariffs.

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Morningstar Direct

What to look forward to
This week is a busy one for economic data, with the regularly scheduled reports joined by some catch-up data.

On Wednesday, the consumer price reports will be released. The headline index, which includes energy and food, is expected to rise by 0.1 percent for January, up from a 0.1-percent decline in December. This would take the annual rate down from 1.9 percent to 1.5 percent on base effects. A drop in the price of gasoline and natural gas is the primary factor in the significant annual decline. The core index, which excludes food and energy, should hold steady at a 0.2-percent gain for January, the same as December. Here, the annual figure should pull back slightly from 2.2 percent to 2.1 percent. If the numbers come in as expected, inflation will remain solidly under control, which will likely keep the Federal Reserve patient on interest rates.

On Thursday, the producer price reports are also expected to show moderating inflation. The headline index should rise from a 0.2-percent decline in December to a 0.1-percent increase in January, but the annual rate will likely decline from 2.5 percent to 2.3 percent on base effects. Core prices are also expected to rise on a monthly basis, from a 0.1-percent decline in December to a 0.2-percent gain in January. The annual figure will likely drop here as well, however, from 2.7 percent to 2.5 percent.

The retail sales report, a catch-up report, will be released on Thursday. The headline index will likely pull back slightly, from a 0.2-percent gain in November to a 0.1-percent gain in December. The core index, which excludes autos, is expected to pull back a bit more, from a 0.2-percent gain in November to flat in December. Much of this is due to lower gasoline prices, but there are also signs that underlying spending growth may be slowing, and there is some downside risk to these numbers.

On Friday, the industrial production report is also expected to pull back slightly. Growth of 0.3 percent in December will likely drop to 0.1 percent in January, largely on reduced manufacturing output. Manufacturing is expected to decline from an unanticipated surge of 1.1-percent growth in December to 0.2 percent in January on a decline in employee hours. There may be some downside risk to both these numbers on slowing global demand.

Finally, also on Friday, the initial release of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index should rebound a bit, from 91.2 in January to 94 in February. The government shutdown was responsible for much of the recent decline, reportedly, so its end should help the index bounce back. Lower gas prices and the stock market recovery should also help.

Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg Barclays US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg Barclays US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million.

Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Ave. Suite #304, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com.

Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.

© 2019 Commonwealth Financial Network®

Presented by Mark Gallagher

New year kicks off with stock market rebound
Markets around the world had a great start to the year, with almost everything going up. Here in the U.S., the Nasdaq Composite led the pack with a return of 9.79 percent. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) were close behind with returns of 8.01 percent and 7.29 percent, respectively. These gains helped offset the losses in December and led to the best January in years.

One of the drivers of this market rebound was continued earnings growth. According to FactSet, with 22 percent of companies reporting, the blended average earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for the fourth quarter is 10.9 percent (as of January 25, 2019). This figure would represent the fifth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. It would also be well above analyst forecasts. Still, it may be the last quarter of double-digit growth for a while. Analysts are currently forecasting low single-digit growth for the next three quarters.

From a technical perspective, all three major U.S. indices moved closer to their 200-day moving averages in January. The DJIA finished the month above its trend line, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished near their respective moving averages. U.S. markets have been below these important technical levels since early in the fourth quarter of 2018. As such, a sustained break above them would be a positive development, indicating that investors’ views on the U.S. have become more positive.

The international story was much the same. The MSCI EAFE Index gained 6.57 percent in January. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fared even better, with a gain of 8.78 percent. In fact, this gain was enough to bring the index above its 200-day moving average at month-end for the first time since May 2018. The developed market index remained below its trend line.

Even fixed income had a positive month, with a gain of 1.06 percent for the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. High-yield did even better, with a gain of 4.52 percent for the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index. The Federal Reserve (Fed) did not increase the federal funds rate at its January meeting, and much of the released commentary was supportive of future economic growth. The potential for future rate hikes has subsided recently, which has also helped fixed income performance.

Despite uncertainty, economic growth continues
At the end of 2018, a wide range of negative news cast a shadow of uncertainty over the economy. But January was much more positive. First, the end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history near month’s end helped considerably. Second, reported progress on China trade talks was also constructive. Of course, the potential for further uncertainty remains, especially with another possible shutdown beginning on February 15. But the temporary return to normal is certainly welcome.

Despite worries over the shutdown, trade, and Brexit, the fundamental economic data was positive. An impressive 304,000 new jobs were added during the month. This figure was well above expectations for a more modest 165,000. Unemployment rose to 4 percent—although this increase was largely due to the effects of the shutdown and should reverse next month. As you can see in Figure 1, the growth in jobs on a year-over-year basis steadily improved in 2018 following declines since 2015. It continues to do so to start off 2019.

Figure 1. Year-Over-Year Growth in Private Workers, 2010–2019

Other highlights from the month included better-than-expected manufacturing and industrial production in December. These gains were largely due to increased vehicle production. Manufacturing was especially impressive. Here, we saw 1.1-percent monthly growth against expectations for a more modest 0.3 percent. In the face of slowing global growth, a strong dollar, and trade concerns, these healthy figures show that U.S. manufacturing continues to move forward.

Another positive development was weaker-than-expected consumer and producer inflation. Both measures remain near the Fed’s targeted 2-percent inflation goal, so further rate hikes are possible. But the slowing growth in inflation means that the Fed may be more gradual if and when it decides to hike again.

Much of December’s and January’s data was delayed by the government shutdown. This included the first estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth. As such, we don’t have a complete picture of how the economy weathered the shutdown. That said, the data we did see was mostly positive. Given that, once we get the full story, we’ll likely see a healthy economy expanding at a solid pace.

Risks remain, especially in the short run
Although the economy is in solid shape, there are risks in the short term that bear watching. The most pressing is the potential for another government shutdown in mid-February. The same immigration debate that drove the last shutdown will take center stage. Once again, investors should be ready to withstand any potential volatility.

Consumer and business confidence levels would be most at risk from another shutdown. These levels dropped in January during the last shutdown but rebounded slightly once it ended. Another shutdown might well lead to further declines in confidence. It’s important to note that a short-term drop in confidence is not something to worry about. But sustained weakness here could lead to lower spending levels in the long run.

Another area of concern is housing, which remains weak despite lower mortgage rates. In December, pending home sales fell by 9.8 percent. This capped a year in which pending home sales declined on a year-over-year basis every month. Housing is an important sector of the economy with various knock-on effects, so this weakness should be monitored.

International risks also remain. Here, contentious Brexit negotiations and a slowdown in Chinese growth grabbed most of the headlines. Much like housing, these are longer-term issues that should be monitored. But they are not necessarily immediate sources of volatility for U.S. markets.

Solid start for 2019
Things went better than expected to start the year. Strong market performance in January and solid economic data show that the U.S. continues to be a healthy environment for investors. Of course, there is the potential for more volatility in the short term. But over the long term, a strong economy continues to be supportive of markets.

Many of the risks we faced at year-end moderated in January. This has left us in a stronger position than when the month started. Risks do remain, but the outlook is better than we could have expected only a month ago. As always, it is important to keep in mind that a well-diversified portfolio with a time horizon matching your goals remains the best path to achieve those goals going forward.

All information according to Bloomberg, unless stated otherwise.

Disclosure: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly into an index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. It excludes closed markets and those shares in otherwise free markets that are not purchasable by foreigners. The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index representing securities that are SEC-registered, taxable, and dollar-denominated. It covers the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market, with index components for a combination of the Bloomberg Barclays government and corporate securities, mortgage-backed pass-through securities, and asset-backed securities. The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index covers the USD-denominated, non-investment-grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high-yield if the middle rating of Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below.

Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Ave. Suite #304, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com.

Authored by Brad McMillan, CFA®, CAIA, MAI, managing principal, chief investment officer, and Sam Millette, fixed income analyst, at Commonwealth Financial Network®.

© 2019 Commonwealth Financial Network®