Market Update for the Week of September 30, 2024

Presented by Mark Gallagher

Propelled by Chinese stimulus measures, international equities led the way last week. The yield curve steepened slightly. Economic data was mixed: business confidence rose but consumer confidence and personal spending reports disappointed.

Quick Hits

  1. Report releases: Personal income and spending growth slowed in August.
  2. Financial market data: China launched a slew of measures to support its stock market and consumers.
  3. Looking ahead: This week’s data will focus on business confidence and employment.

Keep reading for an in-depth look.

Report Releases—September 23–27, 2024

Preliminary S&P Global US Composite PMI: September (Monday)

The S&P Global US Composite PMI fell but was better than expected. Services came in as expected at 55.2. Manufacturing, on the other hand, rose but fared slightly worse than expected at 48.6. Because the services component makes up the majority of the U.S. economy, the overall rise was welcome.

-Expected/prior month composite PMI: 54.0/54.6

-Actual composite PMI: 54.4

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index: September (Tuesday)

Consumer confidence fell more than expected due to worsening consumer views on current economic conditions. Concerns about the health of the labor market were the cause of the souring confidence.

-Expected/prior month consumer confidence: 104.0/105.6

-Actual consumer confidence: 98.7

Preliminary Durable Goods Orders: August (Wednesday)
Headline durable goods orders were unchanged, defying economist forecasts for a drop. Core order growth also impressed, rising a healthy 0.5 percent against calls for a 0.1 percent increase.

-Expected/prior durable goods orders monthly change: –2.6%/+9.9%

-Actual durable goods orders change: +0.0%

-Expected/prior core durable goods orders monthly change: +0.1%/–0.1%

-Actual core durable goods orders change: +0.5%

Personal Spending and Personal Income: August (Friday)
Although personal income and spending growth came in below economist estimates, August was the 17th consecutive month with spending growth.

-Expected/prior personal income monthly change: +0.4%/+0.3%

-Actual personal income change: +0.2%

-Expected/prior personal spending monthly change: +0.3%/+0.5%

-Actual personal spending change: +0.2%

The Takeaway

-Business confidence, as measured by S&P Global US Composite PMI, increased slightly in September.

-Consumer confidence and personal spending missed expectations in September and August, respectively. 

Financial Market Data

Equity

Index Week-to-Date Month-to-Date Year-to-Date 12-Month
S&P 500 0.64% 1.70% 21.55% 36.22%
Nasdaq Composite 0.96% 2.36% 21.37% 39.45%
DJIA 0.59% 1.92% 13.89% 28.63%
MSCI EAFE 3.75% 2.48% 14.73% 27.68%
MSCI Emerging Markets 6.21% 7.01% 17.23% 27.06%
Russell 2000 –0.13% 0.41% 10.85% 26.92%

Source: Bloomberg, as of September 27, 2024

Emerging and international markets led the way as China rolled out multiple stimulus measures to try to lift consumer confidence and achieve its goal of 5 percent economic growth by GDP. The measures included cuts to bank reserve rates and medium-term lending rates; a swap facility to fund brokers, funds, and insurers; and another fund to help facilitate company buybacks. The result was a move of more than 18 percent, as measured by the MSCI China Index. European stocks also rallied, sending the MSCI EAFE higher.

Fixed Income

Index Month-to-Date Year-to-Date 12-Month
U.S. Broad Market 1.58% 4.69% 12.07%
U.S. Treasury 1.44% 4.08% 10.30%
U.S. Mortgages 1.50% 4.82% 12.91%
Municipal Bond 0.93% 2.24% 10.05%

Source: Bloomberg, as of September 27, 2024

The yield curve continued to steepen on the margins as short-term rates fell and long-term rates rose incrementally. The 2-year fell 1 basis point (bp) to close at 3.56 percent. The 10- and 30-year yields increased 2 bps and 3 bps, respectively, closing at 3.75 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively.

The Takeaway

-China was the story, launching multiple stimulus measures and propelling emerging markets higher.

-The yield curve steepened slightly.

Looking Ahead

This week’s data will focus on business confidence and the employment picture.

-The week kicks off on Tuesday with the release of the JOLTS Job Openings Report for August and ISM Manufacturing index for September. Job openings have fallen an average of roughly 280,000 over the past two months. Investors will watch to see if the trend eases. Manufacturer confidence is expected to improve modestly yet remain in contractionary territory in September.

-On Thursday, the ISM Services index for September will be released. Service sector confidence is expected to remain unchanged after improving more than expected in August.

-Finally, the week will wrap on Friday with the employment report for September. Hiring is set to slow; economists expect to see that 130,000 jobs were added. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2 percent.

Disclosures: This material is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million. One basis point is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Ave. Suite #304, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com

Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.

© 2024 Commonwealth Financial Network

Market Update for the Week of September 23, 2024

Presented by Mark Gallagher

Equities continued to move higher. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the federal funds rate 50 basis points (bps). Economic data was mixed; retail sales and industrial production surprised to the upside, whereas existing home sales disappointed.

Quick Hits

  1. Report releases: Retail sales and industrial production grew more than expected in August.
  2. Financial market data: Equities, paced by mega-cap names, continued to rise.
  3. Looking ahead: This week, we expect data on consumer confidence, durable goods, and personal income and spending.

Keep reading for an in-depth look.

Report Releases—September 16–20, 2024

Retail Sales: August (Tuesday)

Retail sales beat analyst estimates, with headline sales rising 0.1 percent against calls for a modest decline. This marks two consecutive months with stronger-than-expected consumer spending growth.

-Expected/prior month retail sales monthly change: –0.2%/+1.1%

-Actual retail sales monthly change: +0.1%

Industrial Production: August (Tuesday)

Industrial production rebounded after experiencing a weather-driven production decline in July. Manufacturing output rose notably, helping drive better-than-expected industrial production growth.

-Expected/prior month production change: +0.2%/–0.9%

-Actual production change: +0.8%

FOMC Rate Decision: September (Wednesday)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) surprised many economists by cutting the range for the federal funds rate 50 bps after September’s FOMC meeting. Although many economists had expected a reduction of 25 bps, fixed income markets had largely priced in the possibility of a larger cut. Markets rallied immediately after the announcement.

-Expected/prior federal funds rate upper limit: 5.25%/5.50%

-Actual federal funds rate upper limit: 5.00%

Existing Home Sales: August (Thursday)
The pace of existing home sales fell more than expected, dropping the pace to a 10-month low.

-Expected/prior month existing home sales change: –1.3%/+1.5%

-Actual existing home sales change: –2.5%

The Takeaway

-The Fed started its rate-cutting cycle with a 50 bps reduction on Wednesday.

-August retail sales and industrial production were better than expected.

Financial Market Data

Equity

Index Week-to-Date Month-to-Date Year-to-Date 12-Month
S&P 500 1.39% 1.05% 20.78% 31.45%
Nasdaq Composite 1.51% 1.39% 20.21% 34.27%
DJIA 1.67% 1.31% 13.21% 24.57%
MSCI EAFE 0.43% –1.23% 10.58% 18.01%
MSCI Emerging Markets 2.26% 0.75% 10.37% 16.90%
Russell 2000 2.10% 0.54% 11.00% 24.91%

Source: Bloomberg, as of September 20, 2024

Equities continued their rally after the Fed announced its rate cut. Mega-cap names lifted the market, with Apple, Meta Platforms, Amazon, and Alphabet each rising more than 2.5 percent. Nvidia fell 2.6 percent after a strong rally the previous week. FedEx also struggled, tumbling more than 11 percent after cutting full-year earnings guidance as demand moved toward less profitable deliveries.

Fixed Income

Index Month-to-Date Year-to-Date 12-Month
U.S. Broad Market 1.59% 4.70% 10.43%
U.S. Treasury 1.46% 4.10% 8.97%
U.S. Mortgages 1.50% 4.82% 10.73%
Municipal Bond 0.86% 2.16% 7.57%

Source: Bloomberg, as of September 20, 2024

The most impactful news was the 50 bps cut from the Fed, leaving the federal funds target range at 4.75 percent–5 percent. The Treasury yield curve beyond the 2-year saw modest steepening. The 10-year is now 15 bps above the 2-year as the yield curve begins to normalize after being inverted since July 2022. The 10-year closed the week at 3.73 percent. The 2-year and 30-year closed at 3.57 percent and 4.07 percent, respectively.

The Takeaway

-Equities, paced by several mega-cap companies, continued their move higher.

-The FOMC cut the federal funds rate 50 bps.

Looking Ahead

This week’s data will focus on consumer confidence, durable goods, and personal income and spending.

-The week kicks off on Monday with the preliminary release of S&P Global US Composite PMI, which is expected to decline slightly from 54.6 in August, led by a decline in the service sector.

-On Tuesday, we expect the release of the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for September. Consumer confidence is expected to remain unchanged after improving more than expected in August.

-Preliminary durable goods orders for August is expected on Thursday. Headline durable goods orders are set to fall after surging in September. The less volatile core goods orders measure is expected to show continued modest improvement.

-The week wraps on Friday with personal income and spending for August. Personal income and spending are set to rise. Although spending growth is expected to slow compared with July, this would still mark an impressive 17 consecutive months with personal spending growth.

Disclosures: This material is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million. One basis point is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Ave. Suite #304, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com

Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.

© 2024 Commonwealth Financial Network

Market Update for the Week of September 16, 2024

Presented by Mark Gallagher

Nvidia posted a strong recovery as CEO Jensen Huang continued to highlight strong demand for the firm’s AI chips. With near-term Federal Reserve (Fed) policy remaining in question, short-term bond expectations remained volatile. Consumer and producer inflation continued to move lower.

Quick Hits

  1. Report releases: Consumer and producer inflation fell in August, clearing the way for a possible interest rate cut.
  2. Financial market data: Nvidia led a sharp recovery by technology stocks as it continued to see strong demand for its AI chips.
  3. Looking ahead: All eyes will be on the Fed this week as it considers starting its rate-cutting cycle.

Report Releases—September 9–13, 2024

Consumer Price Index (CPI): August (Wednesday)

Consumer inflation fell to a three-year low as year-over-year headline inflation dropped to 2.5 percent. Falling energy and core goods prices helped drive the improvement.

-Prior monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.2%/+0.2%

-Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.2%/+0.2%

-Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.2%/+0.3%

-Prior year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +2.9%/+3.2%

-Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +2.5%/+3.2%

-Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +2.5%/+3.2%

Producer Price Index (PPI): August (Thursday)

Producer inflation also showed signs of improvement, with headline producer price growth falling to 1.7 percent on a year-over-year basis.

-Prior monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.0%/–0.2%

-Expected monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.1%/+0.2%

-Actual monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.2%/+0.3%

-Prior year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +2.1%/+2.3%

-Expected year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +1.7%/+2.4%

-Actual year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +1.7%/+2.4%

Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: September (Friday)
Consumer sentiment rose slightly more than expected in September. Consumer views on current conditions and future expectations improved to start the month.

-Expected/prior month consumer sentiment index: 68.5/67.9

-Actual consumer sentiment index: 69.0

The Takeaway

-Consumer and producer inflation continued to move lower in August, though core inflation was slightly higher than expected.

-Consumer sentiment slightly exceeded expectations for September.

Financial Market Data

Equity

Index Week-to-Date Month-to-Date Year-to-Date 12-Month
S&P 500 4.06% –0.33% 19.13% 27.80%
Nasdaq Composite 5.98% –0.12% 18.43% 29.00%
DJIA 2.62% –0.35% 11.35% 22.07%
MSCI EAFE 1.21% –1.65% 10.11% 19.01%
MSCI Emerging Markets 0.79% –1.47% 7.94% 13.94%
Russell 2000 4.39% –1.52% 8.71% 20.35%

Source: Bloomberg, as of September 13, 2024

Equities reversed their move lower from the previous week. Nvidia, Amazon, and Microsoft each rose more than 7 percent. Sentiment around artificial intelligence recovered as Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang continued to highlight strong demand for the firm’s AI chips.

Fixed Income

Index Month-to-Date Year-to-Date 12-Month
U.S. Broad Market 1.81% 4.93% 10.00%
U.S. Treasury 1.79% 4.44% 8.67%
U.S. Mortgages 1.84% 5.18% 10.11%
Municipal Bond 0.68% 1.99% 7.08%

Source: Bloomberg, as of September 13, 2024

Treasuries moved modestly lower across the curve as inflation levels continued to fall. The 2-year continued its recent move lower, declining another 7 basis points (bps) to close the week at 3.58 percent. The 10-year was a bit more muted, dipping 6 bps to 3.65 percent.

The Takeaway

-Equities recovered sharply after last week’s sell-off amid a softer-than-expected payrolls report.

-Bonds, particularly on the short end of the curve, remained volatile with short-term Fed policy expectations remaining mixed.

Looking Ahead

The major news this week will be September’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Other important items include the release of critical data points in retail sales, industrial production, and existing home sales.

-The week kicks off Tuesday with the release of retail sales and industrial production data for August. Retail sales are expected to fall 0.2 percent after easily exceeding economist estimates in July with a 1 percent increase. Industrial production is expected to be modestly higher after a weather-related decline in July.

-All eyes will be on the Fed on Wednesday. The central bank is widely expected to start a rate-cutting cycle by lowering the federal funds rate after its September meeting. Investors and economists will monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting news conference for hints on the path of monetary policy.

-Finally, the week wraps Thursday with existing home sales for August. The pace of existing home sales is expected to fall after a modest increase in July.

Disclosures: This material is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million. One basis point is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Ave. Suite #304, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com

Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.

© 2024 Commonwealth Financial Network

 

Market Update for the Week of September 9, 2024

Presented by Mark Gallagher

The August employment report was a major catalyst for the worst weekly performance by the S&P 500 in more than a year. Concerns over slowing growth contributed to cyclicals falling (led by big tech), whereas defensive industries outperformed.

Quick Hits

  1. Report releases: The August employment report missed expectations and was downwardly revised for prior months.
  2. Financial market data: The poor employment report helped send stocks lower.
  3. Looking ahead: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report comes out this week.

Keep reading for an in-depth look.

Report Releases—September 3–6, 2024

ISM Manufacturing Index: August (Tuesday)

Manufacturer confidence improved modestly despite slowing manufacturing hiring during the month.

-Expected/prior ISM Manufacturing index: 47.5/46.8

-Actual ISM Manufacturing index: 47.2

Trade Balance: July (Wednesday)

The trade deficit widened to its largest level in more than two years. The increase was driven by a 2.1 percent rise in imports during July that outweighed a 0.5 percent increase in exports.

-Expected/prior trade deficit: –$79.0 billion/–$73.0 billion

-Actual trade deficit: –$78.8 billion

ISM Services Index: August (Thursday)

Service sector confidence improved modestly after rising more than expected in July. New orders picked up and hiring growth slowed.

-Expected/prior ISM Services index: 51.4/51.4

-Actual ISM Services index: 51.5

Employment Report: August (Friday)

Hiring accelerated in August; 142,000 jobs were added following a downwardly revised 89,000 in July. The unemployment rate fell from 4.3 percent to 4.2 percent.

-Expected/prior change in nonfarm payrolls: +165,000/–89,000

-Actual change in nonfarm payrolls: +142,000

The Takeaway

-The employment report missed expectations and, when combined with prior downward revisions, gave the market cause for concern with slowing growth expectations.

-The market saw yields fall as it priced in faster rate cut expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Financial Market Data

Equity

Index Week-to-Date Month-to-Date Year-to-Date 12-Month
S&P 500 –4.22% –4.22% 14.48% 22.89%
Nasdaq Composite –5.75% –5.75% 11.75% 21.28%
DJIA –2.90% –2.90% 8.51% 19.47%
MSCI EAFE –2.81% –2.81% 9.31% 18.22%
MSCI Emerging Markets –2.24% –2.24% 7.35% 12.73%
Russell 2000 –5.67% –5.67% 4.13% 13.23%

Source: Bloomberg, as of September 6, 2024

U.S. equities fell, with the S&P 500 posting its worst weekly performance since March 2023. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 lagged the S&P 500 as investors grew concerned that the employment report and other economic data is pointing to a slowdown in growth. Technology led the declines, with other cyclicals also underperforming, including industrial metals, energy, apparel, retail, banks, and cruise lines. Outperformers were primarily defensive sectors, including food and beverage, tobacco, and telecommunications. Airlines also outperformed due to a sell-off in oil; WTI crude fell 8 percent.

Fixed Income

Index Month-to-Date Year-to-Date 12-Month
U.S. Broad Market 1.84% 4.40% 9.93%
U.S. Treasury 1.58% 4.01% 8.57%
U.S. Mortgages 1.84% 4.58% 10.23%
Municipal Bond 0.07% 1.81% 6.77%

Source: Bloomberg, as of September 6, 2024

Treasury yields fell across the curve as investors priced in a weaker economy and faster rate cut expectations by the Fed. The 2-year dipped below 3.7 percent and the 10-year fell to just 3.75 percent, causing the yield curve to uninvert for the first time since July 2022. Expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week are split between cuts of 25 basis points (bps) and 50 bps.

The Takeaway

-The market responded negatively to last week’s poor employment report.

-The Fed has one more major data point coming out this week (CPI) that could affect yields and market sentiment.

Looking Ahead

This week, the focus will be on Wednesday’s CPI report, which will be a critical factor in the FOMC’s decision-making process.

-The August CPI report on Wednesday is expected to show that consumer inflation dropped to 2.6 percent, with core inflation set to remain unchanged at 3.2 percent.

-The August Producer Price Index (PPI) report on Thursday is expected to show signs of softening, with year-over-year price growth set to slow from 2.2 percent to 1.8 percent.

-On Friday, the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for September is expected to show modest improvements.

Disclosures: This material is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million. One basis point is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Ave. Suite #304, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com

Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.

© 2024 Commonwealth Financial Network