Presented by Mark Gallagher

General market news  
• The yield on the 10-year Treasury opened at 2.89 percent on Monday; the 30-year and 2-year opened at 3.14 percent and 2.26 percent, respectively. Although rates have moved higher over the past five to six months, the spreads in yield between the 2-year and 10-year and between the 2-year and 30-year have remained near current-cycle lows, indicating a very flat yield curve.
• All three major U.S. indices were up more than 3 percent last week. Friday’s strong employment report, which indicated that the economy added 313,000 jobs in February, helped propel markets higher. In addition, inflation fears eased, as hourly earnings dropped to an increase of 2.6 percent year-over-year. This was down from 2.9 percent in January.
• The week was not without its concerns, however. Gary Cohn, President Trump’s chief economic advisor, stepped down following news that the tariffs on steel and aluminum would be implemented. As the week progressed, fears of a trade war and the affect of the tariffs eased as exemptions were put in place for Canada and Mexico. Additionally, it was stated that U.S. allies could potentially be exempt if they were to offer the U.S. concessions on trade.
• The financial sector was the top performer on the week, benefiting from the Senate’s continued work on the Dodd-Frank Act, which could potentially ease regulations within the sector.
• Last week was relatively quiet in terms of major economic news. On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management’s Nonmanufacturing composite declined slightly to 59.5, above expectations for a further fall to 59. This measure of confidence in the service economy remains in healthy expansionary territory.
• As mentioned above, the February employment report came in much better than expected. In addition, there were upward revisions to both December and January figures. Much of this surprise growth came from increased participation, as the participation rate ticked up from 62.7 percent to 63 percent. Unemployment remained unchanged at 4.1 percent. Going forward, the strength of the labor market likely will lead to further Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2018.

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Morningstar Direct

What to look forward to
With five major reports expected, this will be a busy week for economic news.

We’ll kick things off on Tuesday with the consumer prices report. The headline number, which includes food and energy, is expected to drop from a 0.5-percent increase in January to a more modest 0.2-percent increase in February, as surges in energy prices normalize. The annual figure, however, is expected to rise from 2.1 percent to 2.2 percent. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is also expected to drop on a monthly basis, from 0.3 percent in January to 0.2 percent in February. The annual figure in this case, though, is expected to stay steady at 1.8 percent. If these numbers come in as expected, they would indicate stable conditions.

On Wednesday, the retail sales report is expected to show renewed strength. The headline number, including autos, is expected to rise from a 0.3-percent decline in January to a 0.3-percent increase in February, as auto sales bounce back. Core sales, which exclude autos, are expected to improve as well, from a flat result in January to a 0.4-percent increase in February. The boost in take-home pay resulting from the tax bill, along with high consumer confidence, should drive sales higher.

On Thursday and Friday, respectively, we get the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) industry survey and the housing starts report. The NAHB survey is expected to stay steady at 72, which is a high level, although there may be some downside risk based on supply and labor shortages. After jumping to a 16-year high in January, housing starts are expected to tick down from 1.326 million to 1.286 million, as multifamily construction drops back even as single-family construction continues to rise. These would be healthy reports if they come in as expected.

On Friday, the industrial production report is expected to improve, with the headline figure rising from a decline of 0.1 percent in January to a gain of 0.3 percent. Manufacturing is expected to show a similar gain, from flat in January to 0.3-percent growth in February. With both oil production and manufacturing showing strength, we could see even faster growth here.

Finally, and also on Friday, the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey is expected to pull back from 99.7 in February—the second-highest level since 2004—to 99.5 in March on stock market volatility. Here as well, there looks to be upside potential, given faster employment growth and strong results in other confidence surveys.

Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg Barclays US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg Barclays US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million.

Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Ave. Suite #304, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com.

Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.

© 2018 Commonwealth Financial Network®

Presented by Mark Gallagher

General market news
• The yield on the 10-year Treasury was back down to its recent low of 2.79 percent late last week after reaching as high as 2.95 percent. It opened at 2.83 percent early Monday. The 30-year was as low as 3.07 percent last week before opening at 3.11 percent Monday morning. The 2-year was back down to 2.21 percent Monday after being as high as 2.28 percent late last week.
• Each of the three major U.S. indices, as well as the Russell 2000 Index, lost at least 1 percent last week. During the week, the market digested news of Jerome Powell’s first testimony before Congress. The newly appointed chair of the Federal Reserve was candid in his comments on the economy, which he believes to be strong. His testimony seems to have led investors to believe that he may be more hawkish in raising rates.
• Other major news affecting the markets was President Trump’s proposed 25-percent tariff on steel and 10-percent tariff on aluminum. The move has many questioning what is ahead for NAFTA and other trade agreements.
• The economic data released last week was a mixed bag; the hard figures were weak, while the soft business and consumer confidence measures were strong. On Monday, new home sales declined sharply, against expectations for a modest increase.
• On Tuesday, durable goods orders declined at both the headline and core level. Also on Tuesday, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index surged to a 17-year high, despite volatility in the equity market.
• On Wednesday, the second estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product declined, as expected, to 2.5-percent growth, down from the initial estimate of 2.6 percent. Even with this minor downward revision, the economy was healthy in 2017, growing at 2.3 percent on a real basis.
• On Thursday, the personal income and spending reports were both largely in line with expectations. Also on Thursday, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing index rose to a 13-year high, which should help spur additional growth in manufacturing to begin the year.

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Morningstar Direct

What to look forward to
We’ll see three major economic reports this week, which will give us a look at the service sector, trade, and the job market.

On Monday, the ISM Nonmanufacturing index was released. It did better than expected, dropping slightly from 59.9 in January to 59.5 for February, against expectations for a drop to 59. Although this index has been volatile in recent months, the trend has remained positive. Because this is a diffusion index, values above 50 indicate expansion, so even with the decline, the index still indicates strong growth. With the ISM Manufacturing index’s good results last week, this result shows business confidence remains strong across the board.

On Wednesday, the international trade report is expected to show that the trade deficit improved slightly, from $53.1 billion in December to $52.6 billion in January, on a rise in exports due to the weak dollar and strong global growth. There is some downside risk here, but if the numbers come in as expected, trade could be less of a drag than expected on economic growth in the first quarter of 2018.

Finally, on Friday, the employment report is expected to show continued job growth, with 200,000 jobs added in February, the same as in January. Wage growth is also expected to stay constant at a healthy 0.3 percent. Meanwhile, labor demand, as expressed by the average workweek, is expected to rise from 34.3 hours to 34.4 hours. There may be some upside risk here, as jobless claims have continued to drop and employment surveys have remained strong. Overall, if the report is as expected, it will be another positive signal for continued growth.

There’s one more piece of economic news to watch for: whether the White House follows through on the steel and aluminum tariffs President Trump announced last week. Markets around the world pulled back on the news, and any follow-through could result in more volatility.

Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg Barclays US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg Barclays US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million.

Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Ave. Suite #304, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com.
Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.

© 2018 Commonwealth Financial Network®

Presented by Mark Gallagher

A bumpy ride for the markets
February was a rocky month for the stock market. After plunging roughly 10 percent mid-month, the three major U.S. indices were able to make up some ground. The Nasdaq Composite finished down 1.74 percent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index lost 3.96 percent and 3.69 percent, respectively. The first substantial market decline we’ve experienced in some time, it was driven largely by concerns over rising inflation and interest rates. Although worrying, this level of volatility is normal by historical standards.

Faster earnings growth continued to support the markets in February. In fact, fourth-quarter 2017 earnings came in well above expectations. According to FactSet, as of February 23, the estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 was 14.8 percent.

Technical factors were also supportive of equity markets. All three U.S. indices were above their respective 200-day moving averages at month-end, despite the earlier drop.

International equities also had it rough. The MSCI EAFE Index of developed markets declined 4.51 percent, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index was down 4.60 percent. Rising global interest rates fueled much of the volatility, even as economic fundamentals remained supportive. Technicals also were supportive, as both indices ended the month above their respective trend lines.

There was no escape for fixed income either, as rising interest rates dragged down bond prices. The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index experienced a 0.95-percent decline. Typically less affected by interest rate changes, high-yield bonds lost 0.85 percent.

Economic growth continues, but at a slower pace
U.S. gross domestic product growth for the fourth quarter of 2017 was revised down to 2.5 percent, primarily due to a larger-than-expected increase in imports. Still, there were plenty of bright spots.

The economy added 200,000 jobs in January, average hourly wage growth hit the highest level since 2009, and unemployment remained unchanged at 4.1 percent.

Meanwhile, both major consumer sentiment surveys increased by more than expected in January, despite rising gas prices and stock market turbulence. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index is now at levels last seen in 2000 (see Figure 1).

Figure 1. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, 1998–2018

Businesses were confident as well. The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing surveys moved to 13-year highs in February, indicating continued business investment and expansion. The hard data was somewhat weaker than expected, though. Core durable goods orders, which exclude volatile aircraft purchases, fell 0.3 percent.

Given this strong environment, markets expect the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates by 25 basis points at the March meeting.

Housing a drag
Despite improvements elsewhere, housing growth slowed. Homebuilder confidence remained near multiyear highs, but home sales fell for the second month in a row. A combination of rising mortgage rates and low supply levels likely contributed to the decline. Increases in housing starts and permits—by 9.7 percent and 7.4 percent, respectively—in January should help supply going forward.

Political risks recede—for the moment
Politics, a major source of risk for the markets, have started to recede. In the U.S., following the brief government shutdown on February 8, Congress cut a deal both to lift the debt ceiling until September 2019 and to increase spending.

In Asia, with all eyes on the U.S. and North Korean delegations at the Winter Olympics, a willingness for diplomatic talks was a de-escalation of the fiery rhetoric between the countries.

In Germany, Angela Merkel’s attempts to form a coalition government and end a political state of limbo were finally successful after months of negotiations.

Of course, political risk can reemerge at any time. Notably, on March 1, an announcement that the U.S. planned to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports sparked worries about a trade war, sending markets into decline.

Real slowdown or blip?
February was a more difficult month than we have seen in some time. That said, growth remains in healthy territory. Plus, strong corporate sales and profits should continue to support the financial markets. What this month’s volatility gave us was a wake-up call, reminding investors that markets can go down as well as up.

This is just a return to normal, however, which is a good thing. The U.S. economy and financial markets are well positioned for long-term growth. A well-diversified portfolio designed around your financial objectives and time horizon remains the best way to pursue your goals.

All information according to Bloomberg, unless stated otherwise.

Disclosure: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly into an index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. It excludes closed markets and those shares in otherwise free markets that are not purchasable by foreigners. The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index representing securities that are SEC-registered, taxable, and dollar-denominated. It covers the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market, with index components for a combination of the Bloomberg Barclays government and corporate securities, mortgage-backed pass-through securities, and asset-backed securities. The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index covers the USD-denominated, non-investment-grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high-yield if the middle rating of Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below.

Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Ave. Suite #304, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com.

Authored by Brad McMillan, CFA®, CAIA, MAI, managing principal, chief investment officer, and Sam Millette, fixed income analyst, at Commonwealth Financial Network®.

© 2018 Commonwealth Financial Network®