Market Update—Week of April 14, 2025

Posted on April 15, 2025 by George Gallagher

Presented by Mark Gallagher

Inflation surprised to the downside in March, with Consumer and Producer Price indices showing a contraction of prices. Equities rallied sharply on Wednesday following news of a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries. The move in the intermediate to long end of the yield curve is worth watching.

Quick Hits

Report releases: Consumer and producer prices showed signs of continued cooling in March, coming in below expectations and the prior month’s readings.
Financial market data: U.S. equities rebounded sharply following the announcement of a 90-day postponement of tariffs on most countries.
Looking ahead: The stock market will see an abbreviated week of trading with the Good Friday holiday. The focus this week will be import prices, retail sales, and housing data.

Keep reading for an in-depth look.

Report Releases—April 7–11, 2025

National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Optimism Index: March (Tuesday)

Manufacturer small business optimism fell more than expected in March. Business owners cited policy uncertainty, taxes, and quality of labor as key pain points. The net percentage of owners expecting better business conditions fell 16 points, marking the largest monthly decline since December 2020.

Expected/prior month NFIB Optimism Index: 98.4/100.7
Actual NFIB Optimism Index: 97.8

Consumer Price Index: March (Thursday)

Consumer prices continued to cool in March, with each overall change coming in below estimates and the prior month’s readings.

Prior monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.2%/+0.2%
Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.1%/+0.3%
Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: ‒1%/+0.1%
Prior year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +2.8%/+3.1%
Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +2.5%/+3.0%
Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +2.4%/+2.8%

Producer Price Index: March (Friday)

Producer prices were down in March, with both headline and core readings coming in below expectations and the prior month’s readings.

Prior monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.0%/‒1%
Expected monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.2%/+0.3%
Actual monthly PPI/core PPI growth: ‒4%/‒0.1%
Prior year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +3.2%/+3.4%
Expected year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +3.3%/+3.6%
Actual year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +2.7%/+3.3%

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: April, Preliminary (Friday)
Consumer sentiment continued to crater in April. Readings for both current conditions and future expectations declined notably.

Expected/prior month sentiment: 53.8/57.0
Actual month sentiment: 50.8

The Takeaway

Inflation surprised to the downside in March, with both Consumer and Producer Price indices showing a contraction of prices.
Small business optimism and consumer sentiment releases showed a lack of confidence, with both surprising to the downside.

Financial Market Data

Equity

Index	Week-to-Date	Month-to-Date	Year-to-Date	12-Month
S&P 500	5.73%	‒4.38%	‒8.47%	4.54%
Nasdaq Composite	7.30%	‒3.30%	‒13.22%	2.47%
DJIA	4.97%	‒4.20%	‒5.04%	6.44%
MSCI EAFE	0.83%	‒4.14%	2.59%	3.29%
MSCI Emerging Markets	‒3.82%	‒4.97%	‒2.15%	1.91%
Russell 2000	1.83%	‒7.51%	‒16.28%	‒7.70%

Source: Bloomberg, as of April 11, 2025

U.S. equities rebounded sharply last week. Most of the recovery occurred on Wednesday on the back of news of a 90-day postponement of tariffs for those countries that didn’t issue retaliatory tariffs. The S&P 500 was up more than 9 percent on the day following the news. Emerging markets, however, struggled as China was the main country of focus, and the U.S. and China continued to raise their tariffs on each other. China made up more than 31 percent of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index coming into the quarter and was the second largest source of U.S. imports in 2024.

Fixed Income

Index	Month-to-Date	Year-to-Date	12-Month
U.S. Broad Market	‒1.19%	1.06%	5.25%
U.S. Treasury	‒0.74%	1.62%	5.26%
U.S. Mortgages	‒1.26%	1.26%	5.99%
Municipal Bond	‒3.70%	‒2.78%	‒0.42%

Source: Bloomberg, as of April 11, 2025

The shift in tariff policy on Wednesday saw an immediate lift in the yield curve, as investors moved away from bonds to re-enter U.S. equities. As the week developed, another interesting move continued to develop with steepening on the long end of the yield curve. The intermediate to long end of the yield curve has a direct impact on areas such as the housing market, and this is worth watching.

The Takeaway

Equities rallied sharply on Wednesday following news of a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries.
The yield curve moved higher amid a rotation back into equities.

Looking Ahead

The stock market will see an abbreviated week of trading this week with the Good Friday holiday. The focus this week will be import prices, retail sales, and housing data.

The week kicks off Tuesday with the Import Price Index for March. While this does not include tariffs, it will be interesting to see how foreign exporters are shifting pricing amid potential tariffs.
On Wednesday, Retail Sales for March and the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index for April will be released. Retail sales are expected to accelerate in March, driven in large part by the automotive sector. Home builder confidence is expected to fall further in April.
Finally, on Thursday, the Housing Starts and Building Permits for March will be released. Both housing starts and building permits are expected to fall in March.

Disclosures: This material is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000^® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000^® Index. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million. One basis point is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent. One basis point (bp) is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network^®.

Market Update—Week of March 31, 2025

Posted on April 3, 2025 by George Gallagher

Presented by Mark Gallagher

Consumer confidence continued to struggle; the Conference Board’s gauge of future expectations fell to a 12-year low. U.S. equities moved lower amid tariff concerns and a hotter-than-expected inflation report. The focus this week will be Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reports, trade data, and the March employment report.

Quick Hits

Report releases: Consumer confidence continued to struggle; the Conference Board’s gauge of future expectations fell to a 12-year low.
Financial market data: U.S. equities moved lower amid tariff concerns and a hotter-than-expected inflation report.
Looking ahead: The focus this week will be on ISM reports, trade data, and the March
employment report.

Report Releases—March 24–28, 2025

New Home Sales: February (Tuesday)
New home sales were slightly below expectations but exceeded the previous month’s reading. Although inventory has shown recent improvement, home builder sentiment is under pressure as the impacts of tariffs and immigration policies are considered.

Expected/prior month new home sales: 680,000/664,000
Actual new home sales: 676,000

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index: March (Tuesday)
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to a four-year low. Consumers’ views on the current situation fell modestly, whereas future expectations continued to plummet, reaching a
12-year low.

Expected/prior month Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index: 94.0/100.1
Actual Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index: 92.9

Durable Goods Orders: February (Wednesday)
Durable goods orders beat expectations despite being below the previous month’s reading. Some buyers likely tried to get ahead of looming tariffs, so it will be important to see how these numbers shift.

Expected/prior month durable goods orders monthly change: –1.0%/+3.3%
Actual durable goods orders monthly change: +0.9%

Personal Income and Spending: February (Friday)
Personal income beat expectations, coming in just shy of the previous month’s growth rate. Personal spending barely missed expectations but rebounded from the previous month’s modest decline.

Expected/prior month personal income monthly change: +0.4%/+0.9%
Actual personal income monthly change: +0.8%
Expected/prior month personal spending monthly change: +0.5%/–2%
Actual personal spending monthly change: +0.4%

The Takeaway

Economic data was mixed, with new home sales and consumer confidence softer than expected.
Durable goods orders surprised to the upside, possibly due to ordering ahead of potential tariffs.

Financial Market Data

Equity

Index	Week-to-Date	Month-to-Date	Year-to-Date	12-Month
S&P 500	–1.52%	–6.16%	–4.81%	7.62%
Nasdaq Composite	–2.59%	–8.02%	–10.15%	6.52%
DJIA	–0.96%	–5.01%	–1.85%	6.33%
MSCI EAFE	–0.98%	1.80%	9.27%	7.79%
MSCI Emerging Markets	–0.88%	2.41%	4.77%	10.74%
Russell 2000	–1.62%	–6.33%	–9.02%	–3.53%

Source: Bloomberg, as of March 28, 2025

U.S. equities were lower as investors eyed the April 2 tariff announcement and inflation surprised to the upside. Investors took a risk-off approach, with consumer staples, energy, and real estate being bid up amid hotter-than-expected inflation. Technology, communication services, and industrials lagged; higher inflation means a higher cost of capital, pressuring valuations.

Fixed Income

Index	Month-to-Date	Year-to-Date	12-Month
U.S. Broad Market	–0.19%	2.54%	4.64%
U.S. Treasury	–0.05%	2.63%	4.22%
U.S. Mortgages	–0.19%	2.87%	5.21%
Municipal Bond	–2.02%	–0.55%	0.89%

Source: Bloomberg, as of March 28, 2025

The Treasury yield curve continued its recent trend, with a drop in yields in the belly of the curve and steepening on the long end. The 5-year dipped 2 basis points (bps) to 3.98 percent. The 10-year was flat at 4.26 percent and the 30-year rose 3 bps to 4.63 percent.

The Takeaway

Fewer international trade negotiations and blackout periods for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and equities led to lighter volatility.
The Treasury yield curve continued its recent trend, with a drop in yields in the belly of the curve and steepening on the long end.

Looking Ahead

The focus this week will be on ISM reports, trade data, and the March employment report.

The week kicks off Tuesday with the ISM Manufacturing index for March. Manufacturer confidence is expected to fall modestly into contractionary territory, where it has spent most of the past two years.
On Thursday, the ISM Services index for March and the U.S. trade deficit for February will be released. Service sector confidence is expected to fall modestly but remain in expansionary territory. The U.S. trade deficit is set to improve from $131.4 billion to $123 billion.
Finally, on Friday, the employment report for March will be released. Additions to nonfarm payrolls are expected to fall but remain on solid footing, with 120,000 jobs added.
The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 4.2 percent.

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Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network^®.

Market Update—Week of March 10, 2025

Posted on March 13, 2025 by George Gallagher

Presented by Mark Gallagher

The economy added a solid 151,000 jobs in February. Concerns over economic softening and tariff volatility affected U.S. stocks. Data this week will focus on small business confidence, inflation, and consumer sentiment.

Quick Hits

Report releases: The economy added a solid 151,000 jobs last month.
Financial market data: Concerns over economic softening and tariff volatility weighed on U.S. stocks.
Looking ahead: Data this week will focus on small business confidence, inflation, and consumer sentiment.

Keep reading for an in-depth look.

Report Releases—March 3–7, 2025

ISM Manufacturing Index: February (Monday)
Although manufacturer confidence fell slightly more than expected, the index remained in expansionary territory for the second consecutive month.

Expected/prior ISM Manufacturing index: 50.7/50.9
Actual ISM Manufacturing index: 50.3

ISM Services Index: February (Wednesday)
The second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP matched expectations at 2.3 percent quarter-over-quarter. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) favorite inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose 2.7 percent quarter-over-quarter, higher than the expected 2.5 percent increase.

Expected/prior ISM Services index: 52.5/52.8
Actual ISM Services index: 53.5

U.S. Trade Balance: January (Thursday)
The U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected in January. It’s been reported that importers are trying to increase inventory amid tariff concerns. That is worth watching because it could hurt first-quarter GDP.

Expected/prior U.S. trade balance: –$128.7 billion/–$98.1 billion
Actual U.S. trade balance: –$131.4 billion

Employment Report: February (Friday)
Hiring improved in February, with 151,000 jobs added during the month. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1 percent.

Expected/prior change in nonfarm payrolls: +160,000/+125,000
Actual change in nonfarm payrolls: +151,000

The Takeaway

Service sector confidence was better than expected last month, whereas manufacturing was a bit light.
Although employment was slightly lower than expected, it exceeded January’s figure.

Financial Market Data

Equity

Index	Week-to-Date	Month-to-Date	Year-to-Date	12-Month
S&P 500	–3.06%	–3.06%	–1.67%	13.36%
Nasdaq Composite	–3.43%	–3.43%	–5.66%	12.62%
DJIA	–2.33%	–2.33%	0.91%	12.27%
MSCI EAFE	3.12%	3.12%	10.69%	9.81%
MSCI Emerging Markets	2.89%	2.89%	5.27%	12.72%
Russell 2000	–4.01%	–4.01%	–6.76%	0.89%

Source: Bloomberg, as of March 7, 2025

U.S. equities, facing a softening economic picture and volatility around tariffs, moved lower. Tesla and Nvidia were down considerably, falling 10.4 percent and 9.8 percent, respectively. Artificial intelligence (AI) names such as Marvell Technology sold off more than 22 percent; AI capital expenditures came under question as Alibaba unveiled an efficient model to rival Chinese competitor DeepSeek. Defensive names fared better, with health care, materials, and consumer staples among the top performing sectors. Financials, consumer discretionary, energy, and technology were among the worst performers.

Fixed Income

Index	Month-to-Date	Year-to-Date	12-Month
U.S. Broad Market	1.21%	2.15%	4.08%
U.S. Treasury	1.19%	2.11%	3.37%
U.S. Mortgages	1.48%	2.45%	4.56%
Municipal Bond	0.03%	0.97%	2.03%

Source: Bloomberg, as of March 7, 2025

Bonds were mixed, with a sell-off in long-term bonds but a rally in bonds and bills with maturities of less than 2 years. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 9 basis points (bps), closing the week at 4.32 percent.

The Takeaway

Economic softening and tariff volatility led U.S. equities lower.
The bond market seems to have increased its expectations for cuts in 2025.

Looking Ahead

This week, data will focus on small business confidence, inflation, and consumer sentiment.

On Tuesday, things kick off with the release of the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for February. Confidence ticked down slightly last month after a strong uptick to end 2024.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February is set to be released Wednesday. Economists expect to see modest improvements in headline and core consumer inflation.
On Thursday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for February will be released. Producer inflation is expected to fall modestly.
Finally, on Friday, the Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for March will be released. Sentiment is expected to fall.

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Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network^®.

Market Update for the Week of February 18, 2025

Posted on February 19, 2025 by George Gallagher

Presented by Mark Gallagher

Consumer and producer prices rose more than expected, leading to questions about the potential reacceleration of inflation. In equity markets, technology (paced by Nvidia and Apple) and international stocks led the way. The Treasury yield curve was little changed.

Quick Hits

Report releases: Consumer and producer prices rose more than expected.
Financial market data: Led by Nvidia and Apple, technology stocks bounced back.
Looking ahead: Economic releases this week will focus on housing and the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Keep reading for an in-depth look.

Report Releases—February 10–14, 2025

National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism: January (Monday)
Small business optimism fell 2.3 points as plans for making capital outlays and increasing inventories dropped. Expectations for improvement in the economy also fell, from 52 percent to 47 percent.

Expected/prior NFIB small business optimism: 104.6/105.1
Actual NFIB small business optimism: 102.8

Consumer Price Index (CPI): January (Wednesday)
Consumer inflation continued to accelerate, with headline and core prices rising more than expected.

Prior monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.4%/+0.2%
Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.3%/+0.3%
Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.5%/+0.4%
Prior year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +2.9%/+3.2%
Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +2.9%/+3.1%
Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.0%/+3.3%

Producer Price Index (PPI): January (Thursday)
Headline and core producer inflation increased more than expected.

Prior monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.2%/+0.0%
Expected monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.3%/+0.3%
Actual monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.4%/+0.3%
Prior year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +3.3%/+3.5%
Expected year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +3.3%/+3.3%
Actual year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +3.5%/+3.6%

Retail Sales: January (Friday)
Retail sales unexpectedly slumped, marking the largest monthly decline in more than two years. The dip was widespread, with 9 of 13 categories experiencing falling sales.

Expected/prior month retail sales monthly change: –0.2%/+0.4%
Actual retail sales monthly change: –0.9%

The Takeaway

The biggest news was the CPI and PPI being hotter than expected, leading to concerns that inflation may be reaccelerating.
Small business optimism ticked lower, and retail sales posted a notable miss.

Financial Market Data

Equity

Index	Week-to-Date	Month-to-Date	Year-to-Date	12-Month
S&P 500	1.52%	4.11%	4.11%	23.93%
Nasdaq Composite	2.60%	3.76%	3.76%	27.18%
DJIA	0.65%	4.89%	4.89%	18.14%
MSCI EAFE	2.91%	8.74%	8.74%	12.37%
MSCI Emerging Markets	2.01%	5.31%	5.31%	14.47%
Russell 2000	0.05%	2.33%	2.33%	14.85%

Source: Bloomberg, as of February 14, 2025

The technology-oriented Nasdaq Composite bounced back on the strength of Nvidia and Apple, which each rose at least 6.9 percent. Semiconductor manufacturers (and Apple) were buoyed after Apple reached a deal with Alibaba to provide AI to iPhone users in China. Dell also announced a $5 billion deal with Elon Musk’s xAI. International markets continued their strong start to the year, with the developed international MSCI EAFE benchmark up 2.91 percent. In addition to technology, communication services and materials fared well. Lagging sectors included health care, financials, and industrials.

Fixed Income

Index	Month-to-Date	Year-to-Date	12-Month
U.S. Broad Market	1.14%	1.12%	4.48%
U.S. Treasury	1.03%	1.00%	3.69%
U.S. Mortgages	1.23%	1.20%	4.83%
Municipal Bond	1.75%	0.71%	2.50%

Source: Bloomberg, as of February 14, 2025

Treasury yields changed very little over the week. The 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year all moved less than 2 basis points (bps).

The Takeaway

Technology stocks led the way in the U.S., with Nvidia and Apple posting large moves.
The Treasury yield curve didn’t move much despite midweek volatility caused by inflation data.

Looking Ahead

Economic data and releases this week will primarily focus on housing and the Fed.

On Tuesday, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index for February will be released. Home builder confidence is expected to remain unchanged.
On Wednesday, we expect the release of housing starts and building permits for January as well as last month’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes. Housing starts and building permits are set to slow after mixed results in December. Economists and investors will closely analyze minutes from the FOMC meeting to better understand the rationale behind the central bank’s decision to pause rate cuts to start the year.
Finally, on Friday, we expect the release of existing home sales for January. The pace of existing home sales is expected to slow.

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Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network^®.