Market Update for the Week of April 1, 2024

Posted on April 5, 2024 by Neal Gallagher

Presented by Mark Gallagher

The S&P 500 outpaced the tech-oriented Nasdaq Composite in the first quarter. Bond yields were little moved in a short week of trading.

Quick Hits

Report releases: Durable goods orders rebounded in February, signaling solid business investment during the month.
Financial market data: The S&P 500 has increased for five consecutive months.
Looking ahead: All eyes will be on Friday’s employment report for March as the Federal Reserve (Fed) moves closer to a potential interest rate cut.

Keep reading for an in-depth look.

Report Releases—March 25–28, 2024

New Home Sales: February (Monday)

New home sales rose by just 1,000 in February, missing expectations. This will be worth watching as we enter the spring season.

-Expected/prior month new home sales: 677,000/661,000

-Actual new home sales: 662,000

Preliminary Durable Goods Orders: February (Tuesday)

Durable goods orders partially rebounded in February after experiencing a large decline the previous month. The January slump was largely due to a slowdown in volatile aircraft orders. Core durable goods orders showed a more moderate decline and rebound to start the year.

-Expected/prior durable goods orders monthly change: +1%/–6.9%

-Actual durable goods orders change: +1.4%

-Expected/prior core durable goods orders monthly change: +0.4%/–0.3%

-Actual core durable goods orders change: +0.5%

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index: March (Tuesday)

Consumer confidence surprisingly fell, marking two consecutive months with lower confidence levels. Although consumer views on current economic conditions improved, expectations for the future unexpectedly soured.

-Expected/prior month consumer confidence: 104.8/107

-Actual consumer confidence: 104.7

Personal Income and Spending: February (Friday)
Existing personal income rose 0.3 percent in February, slightly below expectations of a 0.4 percent rise. Real personal spending (removing inflation) was better than expected, growing 0.4 percent versus expectations of 0.1 percent growth.

The Takeaway

-Real personal spending beat expectations despite a surprising fall in consumer confidence.

-Durable goods orders were better than expected, indicating improving business activity.

Financial Market Data

Equity

Index	Week-to-Date	Month-to-Date	Year-to-Date	12-Month
S&P 500	0.40%	3.22%	10.56%	31.76%
Nasdaq Composite	–0.29%	1.85%	9.31%	37.43%
DJIA	0.84%	2.21%	6.14%	23.72%
MSCI EAFE	0.13%	3.29%	5.78%	15.77%
MSCI Emerging Markets	0.45%	2.48%	2.37%	8.65%
Russell 2000	2.60%	3.58%	5.18%	22.02%

Source: Bloomberg, as of March 28, 2024

Small-caps led the way in the last week of the first quarter. The S&P 500 closed higher, marking its fifth consecutive month of gains, whereas the Nasdaq Composite fell slightly. This dynamic will be worth watching as we see if the rally can gain breadth beyond Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Tesla, which each fell at least 2.9 percent.

Fixed Income

Index	Month-to-Date	Year-to-Date	12-Month
U.S. Broad Market	0.92%	–0.78%	2.17%
U.S. Treasury	0.64%	–0.96%	0.55%
U.S. Mortgages	1.06%	–1.04%	1.63%
Municipal Bond	0.00%	–0.39%	3.27%

Source: Bloomberg, as of March 28, 2024

Treasury yields were little moved in the holiday-shortened week of trading. The 5-year rose 2 basis points (bps) to close the week at 4.22 percent.

The Takeaway

-The S&P 500 outpaced the Nasdaq Composite in the first quarter of the year.

-Yields were relatively benign in a holiday-shortened week of trading.

Looking Ahead

All eyes will be on Friday’s employment report for March as the Fed moves closer to its first interest rate cut of 2024.

-The week kicks off Monday with the release of the ISM Manufacturing index for March. Manufacturer confidence is set to improve, but the index is expected to remain in contractionary territory.

-On Tuesday, the ISM Services index for March will be released. Economists expect to see unchanged service sector confidence after the index fell more than expected in February.

-The trade balance report for February is due Thursday. The international trade deficit is expected to narrow modestly after widening to start the year.

-Finally, the week wraps Friday with the March employment report. Hiring growth is expected to slow after two months with strong growth. Despite the anticipated slowdown, the unemployment rate is expected to fall from 3.9 percent to 3.8 percent.

Disclosures: This material is intended for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Please contact your financial professional for more information specific to your situation.

Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000^® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000^® Index. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million. One basis point is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Ave. Suite #304, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com

Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.

Market Update for the Week of March 25, 2024

Posted on March 25, 2024 by Neal Gallagher

Presented by Mark Gallagher

The S&P 500 had its best weekly performance this year as the Federal Reserve (Fed) signaled that rate cuts remain on the horizon for 2024. Bond yields fell on the news as bond investors interpreted this as a signal that inflation headwinds will subside.

Quick Hits

Report releases: Existing home sales picked up in February.
Financial market data: The Fed left rates unchanged but signaled that cuts remain likely in 2024.
Looking ahead: Investors will focus on durable goods orders, consumer confidence, and personal income and spending.

Report Releases—March 18–22, 2024

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index: March (Monday) Home builder sentiment improved more than expected, reaching an eight-month high and bringing the index into expansionary territory for the first time this year.

-Expected/prior month sentiment: 48/48

-Actual sentiment: 51

Housing Starts and Building Permits: February (Tuesday)

Housing starts and building permits improved more than expected after experiencing sharp declines
in January.

-Expected/prior month housing starts monthly change: +8.2%/–12.3%

-Actual housing starts monthly change: +10.7%

-Expected/prior month building permits monthly change: +0.5%/–0.3%

-Actual building permits monthly change: +1.9%

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Rate Decision: March (Wednesday)

As expected, the Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at the conclusion of its March meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank’s belief that rate cuts are likely this year at his
post-meeting news conference.

-Expected/prior federal funds rate upper limit: 5.5%/5.5%

-Actual federal funds rate upper limit: 5.5%

Existing Home Sales: February (Friday)
Existing home sales grew more than expected in February. The annualized rate of existing home sales now sits at a one-year high.

-Expected/prior month existing home sales change: –3%/+3.1%

-Actual existing home sales change: +9.5%

The Takeaway

-Housing data showed signs of a recovery as the spring season approaches.

-The FOMC continued to signal that interest rate cuts will occur this year.

Financial Market Data

Equity

Index	Week-to-Date	Month-to-Date	Year-to-Date	12-Month
S&P 500	2.31%	2.81%	10.12%	34.65%
Nasdaq Composite	2.86%	2.15%	9.63%	40.49%
DJIA	1.97%	1.36%	5.25%	25.57%
MSCI EAFE	1.21%	3.15%	5.64%	17.78%
MSCI Emerging Markets	0.51%	2.01%	1.90%	9.16%
Russell 2000	1.61%	0.96%	2.52%	22.34%

Source: Bloomberg, as of March 22, 2024

The S&P 500 had its best week this year as signals of future rate cuts boosted confidence for equity investors. The potential for rate cuts should reduce the burden on higher-growth businesses that have been facing rising costs of capital with rates at their current levels. Technology, banks, apparel retailers, semiconductors, autos, cruise lines, and home builders were among industries that reacted favorably. Athletic apparel struggled as Lululemon and Nike provided soft guidance.

Fixed Income

Index	Month-to-Date	Year-to-Date	12-Month
U.S. Broad Market	0.70%	–1.00%	1.06%
U.S. Treasury	0.42%	–1.18%	–0.64%
U.S. Mortgages	0.82%	–1.28%	0.32%
Municipal Bond	0.16%	–0.22%	3.99%

Source: Bloomberg, as of March 22, 2024

Treasury yields moved lower as bond investors’ concern around inflation eased after the Fed meeting. The belly of the curve between 2-year and 10-year maturities continued to be the main area of action. The 5-year fell 10 basis points (bps).

The Takeaway

The S&P 500 had its best week of the year as the Fed indicated rate cuts are on the horizon.
Yields declined in the belly of the curve because the Fed’s cut signal indicates it believes inflation will ease.

Looking Ahead

This holiday-shortened week will be relatively quiet on the economic data front. That said, investors will still monitor durable goods orders, consumer confidence, and personal income and spending.

The week kicks off on Monday with the release of new home sales data for February. New home sales are expected to pick up modestly.
On Tuesday, we expect the preliminary release of the durable goods orders report for February and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for March. Headline and core durable goods orders are expected to rebound after falling in January. Consumer confidence is set to rise modestly after dropping more than expected in February.
Finally, Friday will wrap with personal income and spending data for February. Both are expected to increase. Spending growth has been impressively resilient over the past two years; any further improvement would be a good sign for consumer spending.

Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.

Market Update for the Week of March 18, 2024

Posted on March 18, 2024 by Neal Gallagher

Presented by Mark Gallagher

Facing greater exposure to debt—which costs more as rates increase—small-cap stocks struggled last week. Rates rose as bond investors demanded more yield to offset hotter-than-expected inflation.

Quick Hits

Report releases: Consumer and producer prices were hotter than expected in February.
Financial market data: Small-caps struggled as inflation led to potential challenges via
floating rate debt.
Looking ahead: All eyes will be on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for its
March rate decision.

Report Releases—March 11–15, 2024

Consumer Price Index (CPI): February (Tuesday)

Headline and core consumer inflation accelerated in February, with year-over-year consumer inflation ticking up to 3.2 percent. Rising costs for shelter, gas, and used cars contributed to the rise.

-Prior monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.3%/+0.4%

-Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.4%/+0.3%

-Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.4%/+0.4%

-Prior year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.1%/+3.9%

-Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.1%/+3.7%

-Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.2%/+3.8%

Retail Sales: February (Thursday)

Retail sales rose in February, though the 0.6 percent increase was below economist forecasts. This lackluster result followed a downwardly revised 1.1 percent sales drop in January.

-Expected/prior month retail sales monthly change: +0.8%/–1.1%

-Actual retail sales monthly change: +0.6%

Producer Price Index (PPI): February (Thursday).

Producer prices rose more than expected in February, with the 0.6 percent rise in headline prices marking the largest monthly increase since August 2023.

-Prior monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.3%/+0.5%

-Expected monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.3%/+0.2%

-Actual monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.6%/+0.3%

-Prior year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +1%/+2%

-Expected year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +1.2%/+1.9%

-Actual year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +1.6%/+2%

Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey: March (Friday)
Consumer sentiment dipped slightly against calls for a modest increase from February’s reading.
The decrease was driven by consumer outlook for future economic conditions; sentiment around current conditions held steady.

-Expected/prior month consumer sentiment survey: 77.1/76.9

-Actual consumer sentiment survey: 76.5

The Takeaway

-Consumer and producer inflation rose more than expected in February.

-Retail sales and consumer sentiment were lower than expected.

Financial Market Data

Equity

Index	Week-to-Date	Month-to-Date	Year-to-Date	12-Month
S&P 500	–0.09%	0.48%	7.63%	31.26%
Nasdaq Composite	–0.68%	–0.70%	6.58%	37.41%
DJIA	0.01%	–0.60%	3.22%	22.61%
MSCI EAFE	–1.32%	1.92%	4.38%	20.16%
MSCI Emerging Markets	–0.12%	1.49%	1.38%	12.84%
Russell 2000	–2.02%	–0.65%	0.89%	16.95%

Source: Bloomberg, as of March 15, 2024

The Nasdaq Composite fell for the second straight week. The Russell 2000 and small-caps led the way downward. Tesla and Meta Platforms were the primary detractors from the “Magnificent Seven.” Each was down more than 4 percent. Semiconductors and airlines were among other laggards. Airlines were led lower after Southwest said it would cut 2024 capacity amid weakness in leisure spending. Energy, materials, and consumer staples were among the top-performing sectors. West Texas Intermediate crude oil was up more than 4 percent.

Fixed Income

Index	Month-to-Date	Year-to-Date	12-Month
U.S. Broad Market	–0.04%	–1.72%	1.63%
U.S. Treasury	–0.25%	–1.84%	–0.12%
U.S. Mortgages	0.01%	–2.07%	0.80%
Municipal Bond	0.34%	–0.04%	4.22%

Source: Bloomberg, as of March 15, 2024

On the back of hotter-than-expected inflation data, Treasuries sold off heavily in the belly of the curve. The 5-year yield rose more than 26 basis points (bps), closing the week at 4.32 percent. Fixed income investors demanded more yield as inflation continued to take bites out of fixed coupon payments.

The Takeaway

-Semiconductors took a breather and airlines showed signs of weakening demand.

-Yields rose sharply in the belly of the curve as inflation was hotter than expected.

Looking Ahead

All eyes will be on the FOMC this week as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell and peers deliver their March rate decision. Several housing indicators will bookend Wednesday’s rate decision.

-The week kicks off on Monday with the release of the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index for March. Home builder confidence is expected to remain unchanged after reaching a six-month high in February.

-On Tuesday, we expect the release of housing starts and building permits for February. Economists expect both to rebound after falling more than expected in January.

-The primary focus this week is on the FOMC rate decision for March, expected at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged. Economists and investors will closely watch the post-meeting news release, along with Powell’s post-meeting news conference, for potential guidance on the path of monetary policy.

-On Friday, the week wraps with existing home sales data for February. Existing home sales are expected to fall after improving more than expected to start the year. High prices, still-high mortgage rates, and a lack of supply are expected to serve as headwinds.

Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.

Weekly Market Update, March 11, 2024

Posted on March 12, 2024 by Neal Gallagher

Market Update—Week of March 11, 2024
Presented by Mark Gallagher

—

Weak iPhone and Tesla sales in China moved the Nasdaq Composite lower. Rates for Treasuries with maturities greater than five years fell as the Federal Reserve (Fed) indicated it was close to cutting interest rates.

Quick Hits

Report releases: Hiring accelerated in February, with a strong 275,000 jobs added during the month.
Financial market data: Weak iPhone and Tesla sales in China helped send the Nasdaq lower.
Looking ahead: Inflation reports (consumer inflation on Tuesday and producer inflation on Thursday) will be the primary focus this week.

Keep reading for an in-depth look.

Report Releases—March 4–8, 2024

ISM Services Index: February (Tuesday)

Service sector confidence fell more than expected in February, due in part to a slowdown in service sector employment. Despite the decline, the index remained in expansionary territory.

– Expected/prior ISM Services index: 53/53.4

– Actual ISM Services index: 52.6

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS): January (Wednesday)

Job openings were almost exactly in line with expectations as the pace of the decline in openings continued to moderate.

– Expected job openings/prior job openings: 8,862,000/9,026,000

– Actual job openings: 8,863,000

Trade Balance: January (Thursday).

The trade deficit increased more than expected in January, due to a 1.1 percent rise in imports that overwhelmed a 0.1 percent rise in exports.

– Expected/prior trade deficit: –$63.5 billion/–$64.2 billion

– Actual trade deficit: –$67.4 billion

Employment Report: February (Friday)
Hiring accelerated in February, with 275,000 new jobs added following a downwardly revised 229,000 jobs in January. Although headline job growth remained strong, the unemployment rate ticked up, from 3.7 percent to 3.9 percent.

– Expected/prior change in nonfarm payrolls: +200,000/+229,000

– Actual change in nonfarm payrolls: +275,000

The Takeaway

– Confidence in the service sector softened a bit more than expected in February.

– Hiring was stronger than expected in February, and the decline in job openings continued to moderate in January.

Financial Market Data

Equity

Index	Week-to-Date	Month-to-Date	Year-to-Date	12-Month
S&P 500	–0.23%	0.58%	7.73%	32.86%
Nasdaq Composite	–1.15%	–0.02%	7.31%	43.01%
DJIA	–0.85%	–0.61%	3.21%	22.65%
MSCI EAFE	2.47%	3.28%	5.78%	17.43%
MSCI Emerging Markets	1.24%	1.62%	1.51%	9.96%
Russell 2000	0.34%	1.40%	2.97%	15.83%

Source: Bloomberg, as of March 8, 2024

The tech-oriented Nasdaq Composite led the way down, with Apple and Tesla the main drivers. Apple was fined $2 billion by the European Union and is under continued scrutiny for how it has worked with Epic Games. It was also reported that the company’s iPhone sales in China fell 24 percent in the first six weeks of the year as consumers shifted to Chinese-based phones such as Huawei. Tesla fell more than 13 percent as demand in China waned and suspected arson shut down its German factory.

Fixed Income

Index	Month-to-Date	Year-to-Date	12-Month
U.S. Broad Market	1.21%	–0.50%	4.70%
U.S. Treasury	1.01%	–0.60%	3.29%
U.S. Mortgages	1.55%	–0.57%	4.29%
Municipal Bond	0.41%	0.03%	5.61%

Source: Bloomberg, as of March 8, 2024

Treasuries with maturities greater than five years rallied as investors took a risk-off sentiment from equities and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank was “not far from a level of confidence needed to cut” interest rates. This indicated the Fed may be more confident it has reeled in inflation, which is supportive for bond investors with fixed coupon payments. The U.S. 10-year Treasury declined more than 9 basis points (bps) to close at 4.09 percent.

The Takeaway

– Chinese consumer demand for iPhones and Teslas was weak to start the year.

– Bond investors bought the belly and long end of the curve as the Fed indicated it was close to cutting interest rates.

Looking Ahead

We expect several important economic data releases this week. Inflation reports will be the primary focus, with consumer inflation data due Tuesday and producer inflation statistics expected Thursday.

– The week kicks off Tuesday with the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February. Headline consumer inflation is expected to pick up, with economists calling for a 0.4 percent rise in prices after a 0.3 percent increase in January.

– On Thursday, retail sales data and the Producer Price Index (PPI) for February are expected. Retail sales (both headline and core) are set to rebound after falling more than expected in January. Producer inflation is expected to increase 0.3 percent after a 0.3 percent rise in January.

– Finally, Friday will wrap with the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for March. Consumer sentiment is expected to increase modestly after falling more than expected in February.

Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.