Presented by Mark Gallagher

General Market News
• The yield curve moved modestly last week, with slight flattening on the back half as future growth projections continued to come down. The increased rate of tapering by the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday did little to surprise bond markets; this doubling was widely expected and the short end of the curve was not impacted by the news. The 2-year yield curve fell 1.3 basis points (bps), closing the week at 0.642 percent. The U.S. 10-year Treasury gave up 8 bps, closing at 1.402 percent. The U.S. 30-year gave up 6.5 bps, closing at 1.817 percent.
• U.S. equity markets were down last week as the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s decision to double the pace at which it reduced its asset purchases took some steam out of the market and high-flying growth names. Wednesday’s meeting saw Fed Chairman Jerome Powell focus on the price control mandate amid historically elevated inflationary data. This move represents a shift from the Fed—which had been primarily focused on its second mandate of full employment—and led investors to believe that this was a post-pandemic inflection point because the Fed will be less accommodative toward financial markets going forward. The names that sold off last week included cyclical and growth sectors in energy, consumer discretionary, and technology. The sectors that held up well were those less prone to inflation, such as health care, real estate, utilities, and consumer staples. We will see if this trend will continue as the Build Back Better plan looks to be shelved for the time being.
• On Friday, the Consumer Price Index for November was released. The report showed that consumer prices increased slightly more than expected, rising 0.8 percent against calls for a 0.7 percent increase. On a year-over-year basis, consumer prices rose 6.8 percent in November, which was up from the 6.2 percent year-over-year growth rate in October but in line with economist estimates. This marks the fastest pace in year-over-year headline consumer inflation since 1982 and signals continued high levels of price pressure on consumers. Core consumer prices, which strip out the impact of volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.5 percent during the month and 4.9 percent year-over-year, which was expected. This report served as a reminder that inflationary pressure remains high throughout the economy, which was one of the factors that drove the Fed to announce tighter monetary policy at its November meeting.
• Friday also saw the release of the preliminary estimate for the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for December. Sentiment increased to start the month, rising from 67.4 in November to 70.4 to start December against calls for a more modest improvement to 67. The improvement for the headline index was driven by improving consumer views on current economic conditions and future expectations. November marked the lowest level for the index in a decade, so the modest improvement still left the index at potentially concerning levels. Consumer confidence has soured over the past few months, as rising concerns about inflation have weighed on sentiment. With that being said, consumer spending growth has remained strong despite the declining confidence, so rising concerns have not yet derailed the overall economic recovery.

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Morningstar Direct

What to Look Forward To
Wednesday will see the release of the Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey for December. This widely followed measure of consumer confidence is expected to increase modestly during the month, from 109.5 in November to 110.6 in December. If estimates hold, this would represent a partial rebound for the index after confidence slumped in November. But it would still leave the index well below the high of 128.9 we saw in June. Confidence has declined over the past few months, from summer highs—due in large part to rising concerns about inflation—as well as rising health risks—due to the Delta and Omicron variants. Historically, improving confidence has helped support increased consumer spending growth, so this will continue to be a widely monitored monthly data release due to the importance of consumer spending to the overall economy.

Wednesday will also see the release of the November existing home sales report. Existing home sales are expected to increase 3.3 percent during the month, following a better-than-expected 0.8 percent increase in October. If estimates prove to be accurate, this would bring the pace of existing home sales to their highest level since January and would signal continued strength for the housing market. Home sales growth has picked up notably compared to pre-pandemic levels, as low mortgage rates and shifting home buyer preference for more space due to the pandemic have spurred a surge in sales growth. This year’s sales growth has been especially impressive given the lack of existing homes for sale as well as rising prices and mortgage rates. If we do see continued sales growth in November, it would be a reminder that the housing sector remains a highlight of the current economic recovery.

On Thursday, the preliminary estimate for the November durable goods orders report is set to be released. Durable goods orders are expected to increase 1.8 percent during the month, following a 0.4 percent decline in October. The anticipated rebound in headline orders is partially due to a rebound in volatile commercial aircraft orders. Core durable goods orders, which strip out the impact of transportation orders, are set to increase 0.6 percent following a solid 0.5 percent increase in October. If estimates hold, this would mark nine straight months with core durable goods orders growth. Core durable goods orders are often viewed as a proxy for overall business investment, so this anticipated increase in November would be a positive sign that businesses continued to spend and invest to meet high levels of demand.

We’ll finish the week with Thursday’s release of the November personal spending and personal income reports. Both personal income and personal spending are expected to increase 0.5 percent during the month. If estimates hold, this would mark nine straight months of personal spending growth. Spending growth throughout much of the year has been supported by improvements on the public health front, which have allowed for an easing of state and local restrictions that supports steady spending growth. Personal income growth has been more volatile this year as shifting federal unemployment and stimulus payments have led to high levels of monthly volatility in average income. With that said, if estimates prove to be accurate, this would mark two consecutive months with rising personal income after the expiration of enhanced unemployment benefits in September caused income to decline.

Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million. One basis point is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Ave. Suite #304, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com.
Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.
© 2020 Commonwealth Financial Network®

Presented by Mark Gallagher

General Market News
• The yield curve continued to rise on the front end and flatten beyond the 5-year Treasury note last week. Near-term inflationary concerns drove the short end of the curve higher and flattened the back end of the curve due to lower future growth expectations amid concerns from the Omicron variant as well as slower global growth. The 10-year Treasury yield opened last week at 1.482 percent and closed the week at 1.341 percent, a drop of 14.1 basis points (bps). The 30-year opened last week at 1.827 percent and closed at 1.676 percent, falling 15.1 bps. The front end of the curve moved higher following Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s suggestion that the central bank may accelerate its taper. The 2-year rose 8.3 bps over the course of the week, closing at 0.591 percent.
• Global equity markets fell this week as the Omicron variant took the wind out of high-flying technology names. An additional factor in underperformance for sectors such as financials, real estate, and consumer staples was the news of a potentially faster cut in Fed purchases of mortgage-backed securities and treasuries. This news saw the short end of the Treasury yield curve move higher because it illustrated that the Fed has become more concerned about broadening inflation. This bodes well for financials as it widens spread on short-term loans and leads to expanding margins for the industry. The only market in positive territory was emerging markets, which rebounded following its strong sell-off. The week did end on a volatile note, however, with the announcement that Chinese rideshare company DiDi would go through a planned delisting once its shares were listed on the Hong Kong exchange.
• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for November was released on Tuesday. Confidence declined by more than expected, as the index fell from a downwardly revised 111.6 in October to 109.5 against calls for a more modest drop to 110.9. This decline, which brought the index back in line with September’s 109.8 result, signals continued consumer unease. Although confidence remains well above the lockdown-induced lows we saw last year, rising medical risks and concerns about inflation have challenged consumer sentiment over the past few months. The discovery of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus in November likely contributed to the slightly larger-than-expected decline in confidence. Historically, improving confidence has helped support faster consumer spending growth, so the recent declines are worth monitoring. Nonetheless, consumer spending growth has remained strong despite declining confidence levels, as pent-up demand continues to power spending growth.
• Wednesday saw the release of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing index for November. This widely followed measure of manufacturer confidence improved, rising from 60.8 in October to 61.1 against forecasts for 61.2. This is a diffusion index, where values above 50 indicate expansion, so the improvement was an encouraging sign that the manufacturing industry recovery continued to gain momentum. This strong result marks a seven-month high for the index, which has remained in expansionary territory since June 2020. Manufacturing confidence has been supported by high levels of buyer demand throughout the year, but tangled supply chains and high prices remain a headwind. The index improvement was driven in part by increased hiring growth, as manufacturers continue to spend and invest in their businesses to meet high levels of buyer demand.
• On Friday, the November employment report was released. The report showed that headline job growth slowed notably, with only 210,000 jobs added against forecasts for 550,000. While the September and October job reports were revised upward by 82,000 jobs, the headline job number for November was disappointing after a hiring surge in October. With that being said, the underlying data showed more encouraging results, as the unemployment rate fell from 4.6 percent in October to 4.2 percent against calls for a more modest decline to 4.5 percent. The monthly job report consists of two surveys, one of employers and the other of households. The headline job number comes from the employer report, while the unemployment rate comes from the household survey. The household survey in November showed a notable increase in hiring, which helps calm concerns about the slowdown in headline job growth.
• We finished the week with Friday’s release of the ISM Services index for November. This measure of service sector confidence improved by more than expected, increasing from 66.7 in October to a record-high 69.1 against calls for a decline to 65. This signals continued high levels of service sector confidence. As was the case with the ISM Manufacturing index, this is a diffusion index, where values above 50 indicate growth. The better-than-expected result was driven by high levels of consumer demand, as current activity and new orders showed improvement. The strong results were widespread, with all 18 service industry sectors reporting growth. Historically, high levels of business confidence have supported additional business spending, so this result bodes well for business spending during the month.

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Morningstar Direct

What to Look Forward To
On Tuesday, the international trade report for October is set to be released. Economists expect to see the trade deficit decline sharply, forecasting for it to narrow from $80.9 billion in September to $66.8 billion. If estimates prove accurate, this report would mark the smallest monthly deficit since April. The advanced report on the trade of goods in October, which was previously released, showed a notable decline in the deficit for this segment. Exports of goods surged 10.7 percent in October, while imports saw a 0.5 percent rise. Throughout 2021, the uneven pace of the global economic recovery and high levels of domestic consumer demand caused the monthly trade deficit to increase notably, so the anticipated narrowing in October is a good sign. We may be starting to see a normalization of international trade, which could support faster overall economic growth to finish out the year.

Friday will see the release of the Consumer Price Index for November. The forecasts call for consumer prices to increase 0.6 percent during the month, in a step down from October’s 0.9 percent gain. On a year-over-year basis, consumer inflation is expected to rise from 6.2 percent in October to 6.7 percent in November. If estimates hold, this report would mark the highest level of year-over-year headline consumer inflation since 1982. Economists expect core consumer prices, which exclude volatile food and energy prices, to go up 0.5 percent for the month and 4.9 percent year-over-year. Throughout the year, consumer prices have been pressured by pent-up consumer demand as well as low supplies due to tangled global supply chains and depleted business inventories. Looking forward, relatively high levels of consumer inflation are likely to continue. In the short term, however, falling energy prices may mitigate consumer price pressure in December.

Friday will also see the release of the preliminary estimate for the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for December. Sentiment is expected to improve modestly, with the index set to increase from 67.4 in November to 68. November’s sentiment report marked the lowest level for the index since 2011, so any improvement would be welcome. Still, challenges to consumer sentiment have grown this year and sentiment is expected to remain well below the 2021 high of 88.3 recorded in April. Consumer concerns over rising prices have caused the index to plummet to well below levels seen in April 2020, when initial lockdowns were implemented. Over the past few months, there has been a divergence between the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. The former report is more highly affected by consumer views on inflation, while the latter report focuses on the health of the labor market. Both reports do point to continued consumer unease, which should be monitored in the months ahead.

Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million. One basis point is equal to 1/100th of 1 percent, or 0.01 percent.

Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Ave. Suite #304, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com.
Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.
© 2020 Commonwealth Financial Network®

Presented by Mark Gallagher

Mixed Month for Markets
Equity market returns were mixed in November as concerns about the COVID-19 Omicron variant led to late-month declines that largely wiped out earlier gains. The S&P 500 declined 0.69 percent while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) experienced a 3.50 percent decline. The Nasdaq Composite held up the best during the month and was able to eke out a 0.33 percent return.

These mixed results came despite improving fundamentals. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, as of November 24, 2021, the average earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 in the third quarter was 40.9 percent. This is up from the 37.5 percent reported growth rate we saw at the end of October and well above analyst estimates for a 28.4 percent growth rate at the start of earnings season. Clearly, businesses have continued to successfully adapt to operating in a post-lockdown environment, which is a positive sign for future market returns, as fundamentals drive market performance over the long term.

Technical factors were also supportive for markets. All three major U.S. equity markets finished the month above their respective 200-day moving averages, although late-month volatility caused the DJIA to approach its trendline. The 200-day moving average is an important technical factor, with prolonged breaks above or below this level signaling a shift in investor sentiment for an index. All three indices have remained above trend throughout the year, which indicates investors remain confident in the ongoing economic recovery and prospects for U.S. markets.

The story was similar internationally, with late-month declines leading to negative returns for foreign markets in November. The MSCI EAFE Index saw a 4.65 percent decline while the MSCI Emerging Market Index dropped 4.07 percent. Technicals for international markets were not supportive, as both indices finished the month below their respective 200-day moving averages. This was the first time that the MSCI EAFE Index has ended a month below trend since June 2020, so it will be an important area to monitor in the months ahead to see if investor sentiment has soured for developed international equities.

Fixed income markets had a mixed month as well. Rising investor concerns toward the end of the month led to a flight to safety that lowered yields for higher-quality bonds but caused high-yield spreads to widen. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell from 1.58 percent at the start of the month to 1.43 percent at month-end. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index gained 0.30 percent. The Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Index, which is typically less sensitive to interest rate changes and more aligned with moves in equity markets, declined 0.97 percent in November.

Medical Risks Rise with Omicron
Public health focus was on the discovery of the new Omicron variant of the COVID-19 virus. The new variant caused increased investor concern and contributed to the late-month sell-off but did not cause case growth to surge to concerning levels. While average case growth did rise modestly from October to November, the number of daily new cases remains well below the recent peak we saw from the Delta variant in August and early September.

Looking forward, it’s possible we will continue to see an increase in new cases to finish out the year. We remain better able to handle an increase now than earlier in the pandemic, however, due to the continued increases in vaccination rates. We ended the month with more than 58 percent of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19 and an additional 11 percent of people who have received at least one shot. With rising concerns about the new variant, it’s likely that we will see a continued uptick in vaccinations in the months ahead, which should help mitigate the impact of the new strain.
Overall, while health risks did increase during the month, we remain in a much better place on the public health front than even a few months ago. Although caution is warranted given the unpredictable nature of the virus, the current impact from the Omicron variant remains muted compared to the Delta variant.

Economic Recovery Continues
Even if we do see an Omicron wave, having weathered two Delta waves has already made the economy more resilient, and any economic damage would likely be constrained. Right now, the economic data keeps getting better. For example, one of the month’s highlights was the release of the October job report, which saw 531,000 jobs added and marked the best month for job growth since July. On top of that, the initially lackluster job growth for both August and September was revised upward. Although the November report came in below expectations, it will likely be revised upward based on the stronger household survey data. In any event, the monthly average job growth remains above 500,000 for 2021. The labor market is a key indicator for the pace of the overall economic recovery, so strong hiring during the Delta wave of COVID-19 suggests that the recovery will be resilient to any Omicron wave.

Another factor supporting growth is the strength of consumer spending, which continued to surprise for both retail sales and personal spending. Consumer spending drives economic activity in the country, so these better-than-expected results were another positive sign for the pace of the overall recovery. As you can see in Figure 1, November marked eight consecutive months with personal spending growth and was the best month since March (throughout the Delta waves).

Figure 1. Personal Consumption Expenditures

Business spending also remained solid during the month, supported by record-high levels of business confidence. Core durable goods orders, which are a proxy for business investment, increased 0.5 percent in October, marking eight straight months with increased core durable goods orders (again, through the Delta waves). Business confidence and spending have been supported by the easing of state and local restrictions throughout much of the year. The continued improvement in October was an encouraging sign that businesses remain willing and able to invest to try to meet high levels of pent-up consumer demand.

The housing sector also showed continued signs of improvement during the month, including a larger-than-expected increase in existing home sales in October that brought the pace of sales to a nine-month high. This improvement came despite low levels of supply of homes for sale coupled with rising mortgage rates. The encouraging result highlights the continued strength of the housing sector and indicates home buyer demand remains strong heading into the end of the year.

Medical and Policy Risks Remain
While economic recovery continued during the month, risks are very much still in play, with medical and policy being the two most significant. On the medical side, although the risks are contained, they certainly bear watching. On the policy side, the risks are only starting to become apparent and will likely rise by year-end.

The most immediate policy risk is politics, starting with the debt ceiling confrontation. While a stopgap measure that will keep the government operating through February has been signed, the issues have not gone away and it will continue to be disruptive. That said, however, we have seen this movie before—and it’s likely we will again see some sort of resolution before a shutdown becomes necessary—but the uncertainty created by the situation has the potential to negatively impact markets and the pace of the economic recovery. Beyond that, the economy also faces uncertainty amid continued negotiations surrounding the Build Back Better Act.

In terms of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s decision to start tightening policy will play out over the coming months but is becoming a headwind now. Chair Jerome Powell rocked markets at month-end when he indicated during Senate testimony that the Fed may tighten policy faster than expected. While faster tightening is a good sign in that it means the Fed sees the economy as healthy, it could cause further market volatility in the months ahead.

International risks are also very real, notably in the recent slowdown in Chinese growth and concerns about the country’s troubled property development sector. While these factors are not expected to lead to a global financial crisis, they should be watched given the potential to drive additional uncertainty and slow the pace of the global economic recovery.

While we have very real medical and political risks, the economy continues to show substantial momentum despite these rising headwinds. We remain in a much better place on the public health and economic fronts than earlier in the year, and the most likely path forward is continued growth ahead.

That being said, the rising risks and market turbulence in November are a reminder that the road back to normal will be long and that we may experience setbacks along the way. As always, a well-diversified portfolio that matches investor goals and timelines remains the best path forward for most. If concerns remain, you should speak to your financial advisor about your financial plan.
All information according to Bloomberg, unless stated otherwise.

Disclosure: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly into an index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. It excludes closed markets and those shares in otherwise free markets that are not purchasable by foreigners. The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index representing securities that are SEC-registered, taxable, and dollar-denominated. It covers the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market, with index components for a combination of the Bloomberg government and corporate securities, mortgage-backed pass-through securities, and asset-backed securities. The Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Index covers the USD-denominated, non-investment-grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high-yield if the middle rating of Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below.

Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Ave. Suite #304, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com.
Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.
© 2020 Commonwealth Financial Network®

Presented by Mark Gallagher

General Market News
• The yield curve, particularly the back end, flattened again last week. The 10-year Treasury yield opened the week at 1.548 percent and closed the week at 1.482 percent, a drop of 6.6 basis points (bps). The 30-year opened at 1.911 percent and fell 8.4 bps to close at 1.827 percent. The front end of the curve saw its recent march higher ease, as the 2-year fell 0.5 bps from last Monday’s open to 0.513 percent.
• Global equity markets fell in the holiday-shortened week after the emergence of Omicron, a new COVID-19 variant discovered in South Africa. The Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed the more tech-oriented Nasdaq Composite for the first three days of Thanksgiving week by 1.90 percent, but the Nasdaq regained 30 bps after Friday’s sell-off as energy and financial sectors struggled. Oil fell by more than $10 per barrel as demand concerns rippled through the market, while financials were hurt by the drop in short-term yields. Despite the drop on Friday, energy remained the top performer of the week as OPEC dug in its heels over production increases after the release of U.S. reserves. Other top-performing sectors included consumer staples and utilities. The largest detractors included information technology, consumer discretionary, and industrials.
• On Monday, the October existing home sales report was released. Sales of existing homes increased 0.8 percent during the month, which was better than economist forecasts for a 1.4 percent decline. This better-than-expected result brought the pace of existing home sales to a nine-month high, signaling continued strong levels of home buyer demand. The pace of existing home sales sits well above pre-pandemic levels. Sales are on track to break the 6 million mark for the year, which would be the highest number of sales in one year since 2006. Housing sales have been strong throughout the year, as low mortgage rates and shifting buyer preference for more space due to the pandemic have helped support a surge in sales despite low inventory and rising prices. This encouraging report showed that prospective home buyer demand remains robust and that the housing sector continues to show healthy growth and recovery.
• Wednesday saw the release of the preliminary estimate for October’s durable goods orders report. Orders of durable goods fell 0.5 percent, which was well below economist estimates for a 0.2 percent increase. This surprise decline was primarily due to a slowdown in volatile aircraft orders during the month. Core durable goods orders, which strip out the impact of transportation orders, increased 0.5 percent in October, which was in line with estimates. September’s core durable goods orders growth was also revised upward. Core durable goods orders are often used as a proxy for business investment, so this solid result is an encouraging sign for business spending in the fourth quarter. This marks eight consecutive months with core durable goods orders growth, which highlights continued efforts by businesses to invest in order to meet high levels of pent-up demand throughout much of the year.
• Wednesday also saw the release of the October personal income and personal spending reports. Both income and spending grew by more than expected during the month, as personal income increased 0.5 percent against calls for a 0.2 percent increase while spending rose 1.3 percent against forecasts for a 1 percent rise. Personal income growth has been volatile throughout the course of the pandemic; this positive result in October, however, represents a solid rebound in income growth following a drop in September that was caused by the expiration of enhanced federal unemployment benefits. Personal spending growth has been steadier throughout the year compared with income growth, as this result marks eight consecutive months with spending growth. Personal spending has been supported by improvements on the public health front that have led to reduced state and local restrictions. Given the importance of consumer spending for the overall economy, this result is a good sign for the pace of economic growth.
• We finished the holiday-shortened week with Wednesday’s release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) November meeting. The Fed announced it would begin tapering secondary market asset purchases by $15 billion in November, with plans for further reductions in the months ahead. Although the tapering announcement was expected by economists and investors, the meeting minutes showed there was discussion about potentially increasing the size of purchase reductions in future months, which would be a more hawkish result than previously expected. The minutes also showed that some Fed members have expressed growing concern about the potential for persistent inflation in the months ahead, given the broadening of price pressure we’ve seen over the past few months. Overall, the minutes largely showed the Fed is expected to continue to normalize monetary policy in the short term.

Source: Bloomberg, as of November 26, 2021

Source: Morningstar Direct, as of November 26, 2021

What to Look Forward To
On Tuesday, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for November is set to be released. Expectations are for consumer confidence to decline, with the index set to drop from 113.8 in October to 110.7. If accurate, the estimated result would bring the index in line with September’s 109.8 reading. Over the past few months, consumer confidence has been challenged by rising concerns about inflation and the pace of the overall economic recovery. Still, despite the declining confidence compared with data from earlier in the summer, the index should remain well above the initial lockdown-induced lows recorded last year. In addition, consumer spending has continued to show solid growth throughout the fall despite lowered confidence over the same period. This data indicates that consumers are going out and spending despite rising concerns. Although it’s encouraging that we haven’t seen spending fall alongside confidence, this report will continue to be widely monitored. Declining confidence could weigh on spending in the months ahead.

Wednesday will see the release of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing index for November. This widely followed monitor of manufacturer confidence is expected to rise modestly, from 60.8 in October to 61. This is a diffusion index, where values above 50 indicate expansion, so an improvement would signal that the manufacturing recovery picked up steam. Despite the headwinds for manufacturers created by tangled global supply chains and rising prices, high demand has continued to support manufacturer confidence throughout the year. Manufacturer confidence rebounded swiftly following the expiration of initial lockdowns last year, and the index is expected to remain well above pre-pandemic levels in November. Historically, high manufacturer confidence has supported faster growth in business spending, so any improvement would be a positive sign for business investment.

On Friday, the November employment report is set to be released. Economists expect to see that 525,000 jobs were created during the month, in a slight decline from the 531,000 jobs added in October. Nonetheless, the anticipated result would mark a very strong month of job growth. This year’s labor market recovery has evolved in fits and bursts, including an acceleration in job growth in October that followed improvements on the medical front. Another strong month of job growth in November would be a very positive sign for the pace of the overall economic recovery. The unemployment rate is expected to show further improvement, with economists calling for a drop from 4.6 percent in October to 4.5 percent in November. As long as estimates hold, this report should demonstrate a continued healthy recovery for the labor market heading into the end of the year.

We’ll finish the week with Friday’s release of the ISM Services index for November. This measure of service sector confidence is expected to decline modestly from the record high of 66.7 set in October to 65. This is another diffusion index, where values above 50 indicate expansion, so the anticipated result would leave the index in healthy expansionary territory. If estimates hold, service sector confidence would end the month at its second-highest level on record. As was the case with manufacturing confidence, service sector confidence rebounded swiftly once initial lockdowns were lifted last year. This year, as the continued easing of state and local restrictions led to a surge in consumer demand for services, we’ve seen another boost in service sector confidence. October’s result was powered by growth in all 18 service sector industries covered in this report, highlighting the widespread improvements for this sector. Given that the service sector accounts for the majority of economic activity in the country, continued high levels of confidence would be a welcome signal for the overall economic recovery.

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Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Ave. Suite #304, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com.
Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.
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