Market Update for the Month Ending May 31, 2019

Presented by Mark Gallagher

Markets hit turbulence in May
After four months of rising stock markets, we finally saw a decline in May. All three major U.S. markets ended the month down, driven by rising worries about a trade war. The S&P 500 declined by 6.35 percent during the month, the Nasdaq Composite lost 7.79 percent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 6.32 percent. Of course, this pullback is a concern. But in the bigger picture, it has taken markets back only to mid-March levels. They are still well above where we started the year, so there is no need to panic yet.

The pullback was due to declining confidence, as fundamentals improved during the month. According to FactSet (as of May 24, 2019), with 97 percent of companies reporting, the first-quarter blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 stands at –0.4 percent. If this number comes in as expected, it would be the first quarter of year-over-year earnings declines since the second quarter of 2016. On first glance, this may seem like bad news. But it is much better than the 4 percent drop forecast on March 31, or even the 2.3 percent drop expected at the start of May. Plus, analysts expect earnings growth to be positive for the rest of the year. This growth should help bolster equity performance going forward.

Although fundamentals were supportive during the month, technical factors were another story. All three major U.S. indices ended May below their respective 200-day moving averages. In fact, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped below the trend line on the last day of the month. This drop is a warning signal for U.S. markets. A prolonged dip below the 200-day moving average can indicate deteriorating investor sentiment and serve as a headwind for future performance.

The international story was much the same, as global trade concerns affected markets across the world. The MSCI EAFE Index fell by 4.80 percent during the month, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index declined by 7.22 percent. Here again, technical factors were not supportive. Both indices spent most of May below their respective trend lines.

This was an especially disappointing month for developed international markets. The MSCI EAFE Index spent April above its 200-day moving average. This marked the first full month above the trend line for the index in more than a year. But the move below the trend line in May indicates that investors are still cautious about international investing.

Fixed income markets had a better month than equities. Here, investors rotated away from riskier asset classes and into investment-grade bonds. Yields fell during the month, with the 10-year Treasury falling from 2.52 percent to 2.22 percent. This drop led the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index to a gain of 1.78 percent in May, as bond values typically increase when rates drop.

High-yield fixed income had a challenging month. This space is less driven by rate movements and more correlated with equities. In May, risk-averse investors favored higher-quality sectors of the fixed income market. The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High-Yield Index declined by 1.19 percent during the month.

Economic data a mixed bag
The economic data released in May was a mixed bag. We saw improvements in consumer sentiment and spending. But we also saw lowered business optimism and investment amid concerns over the ongoing trade wars. Despite the varying results, the economy continued to show growth.

Consumers were the major bright spot during the month. Rising confidence led to increased spending. The University of Michigan consumer confidence survey hit a 15-year high at midmonth before moderating at month’s end. Plus, the Conference Board’s measurement of consumer confidence showed better-than-expected improvement.

Solid employment results helped bolster consumer sentiment. The 236,000 new jobs added in April drove the unemployment rate down to a 50-year low of 3.6 percent. Wage growth also remained healthy, with a 3.2 percent year-over-year increase.

Rising consumer confidence led to better-than-expected spending growth. Personal spending rose by 0.3 percent in April. This increase was supported by 0.5 percent growth in personal income over the same period. To be sure, consumer spending is very important to the economy. As such, it will be important to watch whether improvements in confidence can continue to translate into more spending.

Businesses feel weight of the trade wars
Worries over trade wars with China and Mexico drove much of the negative data released in May. Businesses especially began to feel the effect of these continued trade disputes. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing indices both fell during the month. As a result, the ISM composite index of business sentiment dropped to its lowest level since October 2016 (see Figure 1).

 

Figure 1. ISM Composite Index, May 2010–April 2019

Declines in business sentiment were echoed by decreased business investment. Durable goods orders in April fell by 2.1 percent, which was worse than expected. Revisions to March’s orders also showed weakness. The slide in April was due to a decline in aircraft purchases. Industrial production also disappointed. Lowered utility production and a drop in manufacturing led to an overall decline of 0.5 percent.

Net international trade, which was a surprise tailwind for first-quarter growth, reversed course. The trade deficit widened from $49.4 billion to $50 billion in March. This increase was driven by imports increasing faster than exports. Economists expect that this deficit widened further in April, as the escalating U.S.-China trade war likely slowed export growth.

As mentioned, May’s data had mixed results. But the improvement in consumer sentiment and spending is likely to outweigh the concerns around the business sector. Here, it is important to note that consumer spending makes up more than two-thirds of the economy. Despite the trade-related headwinds in the business sector, improvement in spending should help keep growth going.

Economy withstands rising political risks
As we have seen time and again, political risks can have a direct effect on markets. They generate uncertainty and, therefore, short-term volatility. In fact, political risks drove much of the instability across markets in May. Here, the escalation of the U.S.-China trade war and the surprise announcement of a 5 percent tariff on all Mexican goods were the main culprits.

Developments in May gave rise to a heightened level of worry. Now, markets are priced for more bad news. This pricing sets them up for more declines if the trade situation deteriorates. It also creates an opportunity for a recovery if tensions ratchet down. Of course, there is no telling what will happen with trade developments over the next few months. But the fundamentals suggest growth will continue. This growth should help support markets and provide the foundation for a recovery if the trade tensions do resolve.

Big picture remains positive
Last month’s decline reminds us that although market volatility can create pain in the short term, the big picture in the U.S. remains positive. Consumers continue to be confident and willing to spend. These factors should help boost growth throughout the year. Companies are expected to show improving fundamentals. Finally, even with the declines seen in equities, markets are still positive year-to-date and remain well above December lows.

There are risks out there, especially politically. Nonetheless, the U.S. remains economically resilient and continues to show signs of growth. All in all, May was a bad month for markets. But it is quite possible that it was just that—a bad month—and not the beginning of a larger negative trend.

As always, a well-diversified portfolio and a long-term view toward investing remain the best way to meet financial goals in an unpredictable world.

All information according to Bloomberg, unless stated otherwise.

Disclosure: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly into an index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. It excludes closed markets and those shares in otherwise free markets that are not purchasable by foreigners. The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index representing securities that are SEC-registered, taxable, and dollar-denominated. It covers the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market, with index components for a combination of the Bloomberg Barclays government and corporate securities, mortgage-backed pass-through securities, and asset-backed securities. The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index covers the USD-denominated, non-investment-grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high-yield if the middle rating of Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below.

 

Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Ave. Suite #304, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com.

Authored by Brad McMillan, CFA®, CAIA, MAI, managing principal, chief investment officer, and Sam Millette, fixed income analyst, at Commonwealth Financial Network®.

© 2019 Commonwealth Financial Network ®

Weekly Market Update, June 10, 2019

Presented by Mark Gallagher

General Market News
• After experiencing steep declines recently, Treasury yields remained in a tight range last week. While yields did reach cycle lows—2.05 percent for the 10-year and 1.73 percent for the 2-year—both rates were up slightly higher on Monday at 2.13 percent and 1.86 percent, respectively. The 30-year opened at 2.61 percent on Monday after being as low as 2.52 percent last week.
• Global markets rebounded with their best week of the year, as Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve (Fed) stated that they will “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.” The market continued to rally on Friday after a poor employment report led investors to believe that the Fed will be more inclined to support activity through low rates. In fact, the Fed funds futures are indicating an 80 percent chance of a rate cut at the July meeting. Another potential reason for the rebound last week was oversold conditions.
• Materials, technology, and consumer staples were among the top performers on the week. The technology sector bounced back nearly 6 percent after a strong sell-off, which was due to the House Judiciary Committee’s announcement that it would launch an investigation into the competition in digital markets. The lagging sectors were communication services, utilities, and consumer discretionary, although all of the sectors posted strong gains for the week.
• On Monday, we saw the release of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing index. This gauge of manufacturer optimism declined from 52.8 in April to 52.1 in May. Economists had expected to see a modest uptick to 53. Although this decline was disappointing, this is a diffusion index, where values greater than 50 represent expansion. So, manufacturers are still expected to show some growth at current levels.
• On Tuesday, the ISM Nonmanufacturing index made up for the disappointing manufacturing results. It rose from 55.5 in April to 56.9 in May. This was a solid improvement in sentiment for the service sector and leaves the index at levels that are typically consistent with 2 percent annualized gross domestic product growth.
• Thursday saw the release of April’s international trade report, which showed a trade deficit of $50.8 billion for the month. This was a slightly larger gap than economists expected. Both imports and exports fell sharply, as increasing trade war-related pressure is starting to show up in the hard data.
• Finally, on Friday, the May employment report was released. Only 75,000 new jobs were added during the month, against expectations for 175,000. Unemployment remained unchanged at 3.6 percent. All in, this was a concerning report, as strong job growth has been a major driver of overall economic growth in the current expansion.

 

Equity Index Week-to-Date Month-to-Date Year-to-Date 12-Month
S&P 500 4.46% 4.46% 15.68% 5.83%
Nasdaq Composite 3.91% 3.91% 17.26% 2.51%
DJIA 4.77% 4.77% 12.67% 5.39%
MSCI EAFE 3.24% 3.24% 11.55% –3.94%
MSCI Emerging Markets 1.04% 1.04% 5.26% –3.94%
Russell 2000 3.36% 3.36% 12.94% –7.92%

Source: Bloomberg

 

Fixed Income Index Month-to-Date Year-to-Date 12-Month
U.S. Broad Market 0.36% 5.17% 7.37%
U.S. Treasury 0.33% 4.57% 7.24%
U.S. Mortgages 0.26% 3.70% 6.36%
Municipal Bond 0.20% 4.92% 6.74%

Source: Morningstar Direct

What to Look Forward To
On Tuesday, the Producer Price Index for May will be released. Economists expect 0.2 percent month-over-month growth. That result should leave the annual producer inflation figure at 2 percent, down from the 2.2 percent rate seen in April.

The Consumer Price Index is set to be released on Wednesday. It is expected to show modest monthly growth of 0.1 percent. The headline measure of consumer inflation is likely to show 1.9 percent year-over-year growth, which is down from April’s level. Inflation growth has slowed over the past few months, and further declines are possible.

On Friday, we will receive May’s industrial production report. Economists expect 0.2 percent growth, following April’s 0.5 percent decline. Much of the drop in April was due to lowered utilities output, which is expected to reverse in May. There may be some risk to the downside here, given the decline we saw in the ISM Manufacturing index.

Also on Friday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey will be released. The index is expected to drop from 100 to 98. Although any decline would be disappointing, the index currently sits near 15-year highs, so this mild pullback would not be a concern.

Finally, we will receive the advance report for May’s retail sales on Friday. Economists expect a strong rebound of 0.7 percent growth in May, following a surprising decline in April. Given the high level of consumer confidence, strong spending growth should follow.

Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg Barclays US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg Barclays US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million.

 

Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Ave. Suite #304, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com.

Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.

© 2019 Commonwealth Financial Network ®

 

 

Weekly Market Update, May 28, 2019

Presented by Mark Gallagher

General Market News
• Last week, rates continued to move lower across the curve. The 10-year Treasury, which was as high as 2.47 percent a little over two weeks ago, opened at 2.28 percent early Monday morning. Last week, the 30-year Treasury was at 2.85 percent and was as high as 3 percent four weeks ago; it opened at 2.71 percent on Monday. The 2-year Treasury, which was as high as 2.26 percent last week and 2.37 percent two weeks ago, opened at 2.14 percent. The ongoing trade tensions, coupled with slower economic numbers and expectations, have driven some investors to safety, which has resulted in the recent change in rates.
• Global markets posted losses again last week, and the S&P 500 posted its third straight weekly loss. Recent trade tensions between the U.S. and China have seen investors flock to safer assets. The top-performing sectors were utilities, health care, and REITs. Those that were among the worst performers were the more cyclical sectors in energy, technology, and consumer discretionary.
• Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL) and chip makers Broadcom (AVGO) and Xilinx (XLNX) were among the names that sold off due to a halt on chip supply and software service to Huawei following a ban by the Trump administration. Concerns were eased somewhat with the 90-day exemption given to certain Huawei suppliers. It remains to be seen if both the Huawei ban and the trade tensions will ease or if they will continue to linger.
• Last week saw the release of only a few important economic data points. On Tuesday, April’s existing home sales fell by 0.4 percent. This was disappointing, as economists had expected modest growth in sales.
• On Thursday, the results were much the same for new home sales, as they fell by 6.9 percent in April.
• Finally, on Friday, April’s durable goods orders declined by 2.1 percent. This was in line with expectations for a 2 percent drop.

Equity Index Week-to-Date Month-to-Date Year-to-Date 12-Month
S&P 500 –1.14% –3.87% 13.67% 5.71%
Nasdaq Composite –2.28% –5.53% 15.61% 3.99%
DJIA –0.63% –3.48% 10.79% 5.57%
MSCI EAFE –0.48% –2.89% 10.08% –5.12%
MSCI Emerging Markets –0.86% –8.37% 2.90% –10.54%
Russell 2000 –1.39% –4.75% 12.85% –5.72%

Source: Bloomberg

 

Fixed Income Index Month-to-Date Year-to-Date 12-Month
U.S. Broad Market 0.85% 3.84% 5.98%
U.S. Treasury 1.15% 2.99% 5.73%
U.S. Mortgages 0.73% 2.85% 5.42%
Municipal Bond 0.98% 4.29% 6.48%

Source: Morningstar Direct

What to Look Forward To
This week is a short one with the Memorial Day holiday, but we still have several important data releases.

On Tuesday, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is expected to tick up slightly. It should go from 129.2 in April to 130.2 for May, which would remain a very high level. This result would also be consistent with the recent 15-year high in the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey. As such, it would be a positive signal for the economy.

On Thursday, we get the second estimate of economic growth in the first quarter of 2019. It is expected to come in at 3.1 percent, slightly below the initial 3.2 percent estimate. More interesting will be whether the composition of growth changes significantly to a more sustainable mix. If the number comes in as expected, it will confirm a surprisingly strong result.

On Friday, we will see the personal income and spending report. Income growth is expected to show an acceleration from 0.1 percent in March to 0.2 percent for April. There will likely be a decrease in spending growth, from 0.9 percent in March to a more sustainable 0.2 percent for April, on a decline in auto sales and utility spending due to mild weather. If the numbers come in as expected, they would indicate continued sustainable growth consistent with strong consumer confidence, which would be positive.

Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg Barclays US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg Barclays US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million.

 

Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Ave. Suite #304, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com.

Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.

© 2019 Commonwealth Financial Network®

 

Weekly Market Update, May 20, 2019

Presented by Mark Gallagher 

General Market News  
• Treasuries moved lower last week. The 10-year Treasury reached 2.35 percent last Thursday, and it opened at 2.39 percent early Monday. The 30-year Treasury was as low as 2.80 percent last week and opened at 2.82 percent on Monday. The 2-year Treasury reached a low of 2.13 percent and opened at 2.20 percent on Monday; it was as high as 2.41 percent in mid-April. Treasury yields as far out as 12 years are now trading below the upper bound of the current Federal Reserve (Fed) funds rate.
• Global markets continued to sell off last week as U.S.-China trade tensions escalated. China announced its retaliatory tariffs after the U.S. upped its tariffs from 10 percent to 25 percent. On Thursday, the Trump administration announced that it had banned the sale of equipment and software to Huawei, one of China’s largest technology firms. At this point, there is no additional news regarding additional trade talks between the two countries prior to the G20 Summit. There was, however, some constructive trade discussion, with the U.S., Canada, and Mexico announcing an agreement on steel and aluminum tariffs as they hope to reach a new NAFTA deal this year.
• Amid global growth fears, investors flocked to bond proxies in REITs, utilities, and consumer staples, which were the three top-performing sectors. The worst-performing sectors were made up of the more cyclical ones, such as financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary.
• Last week saw the release of a number of important economic updates. On Wednesday, April’s retail sales figures disappointed, declining 0.2 percent during the month. This decline was caused primarily by a drop in car sales, as the core retail sales figure, which strips out autos, rose modestly.
• Also on Wednesday, the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index was released. This gauge of homebuilder optimism hit a 7-month high, rising from 63 to 66.
• On Thursday, both housing starts and building permits grew by more than expected, as homebuilders ramped up production in April.
• On Friday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey rose by more than expected, moving from 97.2 to 102.4. This reading is a 15-year high for the index.

 

Equity Index Week-to-Date Month-to-Date Year-to-Date 12-Month
S&P 500 –0.69% –2.76% 14.98% 7.25%
Nasdaq Composite –0.61% –3.33% 11.49% 6.66%
DJIA –2.32% –2.87% 14.45% –4.20%
MSCI EAFE –0.72% –2.41% 17.94% 10.01%
MSCI Emerging Markets –0.78% –7.58% 12.70% 3.89%
Russell 2000 0.23% –3.40% 10.61% –5.80%

Source: Bloomberg

Fixed Income Index Month-to-Date Year-to-Date 12-Month
U.S. Broad Market 0.58% 3.57% 6.72%
U.S. Treasury 0.76% 2.60% 6.37%
U.S. Mortgages 0.58% 3.57% 6.72%
Municipal Bond 0.92% 4.24% 6.83%

Source: Morningstar Direct

What to Look Forward To
This is a moderately busy week for economic reports, with a focus on the housing market, news from the Fed, and trends in business investment.

The week starts on Tuesday with the existing home sales report. It is expected to show that sales rose from 5.21 million in March to 5.34 million in April on an annualized basis. Housing has been in a slump recently, so an acceleration would be good news.

On Wednesday, the minutes from the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will be released. The meeting itself was uneventful, with no action taken on interest rates (as expected) and no real changes in the statement. Markets will be looking at the minutes to find out how worried the Fed is about inflation being too low, which is a rising concern.

On Thursday, the new home sales report is expected to pull back from 692,000 in March, which was an unexpected jump, to 677,000 for April, which is more in line with previous months. If the numbers come in as expected, this could indicate that housing is stabilizing.

Finally, on Friday, we’ll see the durable goods orders report. The headline index is expected to show a significant swing, dropping from a 2.8 percent increase in March to a 2 percent decrease for April due to a drop in aircraft orders. This is a highly volatile number, and a swing like this is not unusual. The core index, which excludes transportation and is a much better economic indicator, is expected to hold steady at 0.2 percent growth for April, as it did for March. If the numbers come in as expected, it would suggest that business investment continues to grow at current levels, which would be positive.

 

Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg Barclays US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg Barclays US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million.

Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Ave. Suite #304, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com.

Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.

© 2019 Commonwealth Financial Network ®