Presented by Mark Gallagher

General market news
• On Monday morning, the 10-year Treasury yield opened at 2.90 percent, while the 30-year opened at 3.03 percent and the 2-year at 2.54 percent. The yield curve is at its flattest level of this tightening cycle.
• U.S. markets were mixed last week, as they had a significant amount of data and events to digest. The Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 were up 1.34 percent and
0.72 percent, respectively. The S&P 500 (up 0.07 percent) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (down 0.84 percent) did not fare as well.
• On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, as expected. What was not anticipated, however, was its more bullish tone for the remainder of the year—giving a median projection of three to four rate hikes in 2018. The anticipation of more rate hikes in an attempt to slow the economy sent rates lower as investors shifted to safety.
• The major geopolitical event came on Friday as the U.S. levied $50 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports. The other international news was more positive, with President Donald Trump meeting with Kim Jong-un for the first time in an encounter that was described as cordial. In other international news, Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), said the ECB would end its quantitative easing plan by the end of 2018 and that rates would be kept steady through the summer of 2019. Finally, it was ruled that AT&T can move forward with its acquisition of Time Warner. This should help pave the way for other deals, such as the one between Disney and 21st Century Fox, and is seen as a positive for the overall mergers and acquisitions environment.
• Last week was a big one for economic updates. On Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index came in at 2.8-percent growth on a year-over-year basis. The core figure, which excludes food and energy, showed 2.2-percent growth.
• On Wednesday, the Producer Price Index indicated accelerated inflation of 3.1 percent year-over-year.
• On Thursday, May retail sales data came in better than expected with 0.8-percent growth, compared with expectations for a more modest increase of 0.4 percent. Given the high level of consumer confidence, faster growth is likely to continue.
• Finally, on Friday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey bounced back from a decline in May.

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Morningstar Direct

What to look forward to

This will be a slow week for economic reports, but we will get some news on housing.

On Monday, the National Association of Home Builders released its industry survey for June, which dropped from 70 last month to 68. But given the lack of lots and labor, as well as a surge in lumber prices, this pullback is reasonable. Overall, the index remains at a healthy level. Despite the shortage of home supply, demand remains strong and should continue to support industry confidence. With inventories falling to a record low in April, that trend should continue

On Tuesday, housing starts are expected to tick up slightly, from 1.29 million in April to 1.31 million in May. Single-family starts have stayed stable over the past several months, while multifamily starts have been volatile. Items to watch will be whether single-family starts rise to match industry confidence.

On Wednesday, the existing home sales report is also expected to rise, from 5.46 million in April to 5.50 million in May. This will come on continued strong demand, especially as buyers move to purchase now before mortgage rates rise further. There may be some downside risk here, however, on lack of supply.

Overall, the housing market is expected to continue to improve, but it will be constrained by lack of supply.

Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg Barclays US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg Barclays US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million.

Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7^th Ave. Suite #304, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network^®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com.

Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network

© 2018 Commonwealth Financial Network^®

Presented by Mark Gallagher

General market news
• The 10-year Treasury yield opened at 2.95 percent on Monday morning, while the
30-year opened at 3.10 percent and the 2-year at 2.52 percent. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is set to raise rates this week, and we may also learn news on its outlook for the remainder of the year and any possible changes to current policy. With the yield curve at or close to its flattest in the current cycle, any slight change to policy could send it closer to possible inversion.
• The three major U.S. indices were all up last week, as recent economic data (May employment report and Institute for Supply Management [ISM] Manufacturing index) indicated strength in the U.S. fundamentals. In addition, trade tensions between China and the U.S. showed signs of easing. In fact, the Wall Street Journal reported that China offered to buy nearly $70 billion in U.S. products to fend off trade tariffs. This offer came in just before the recent G7 summit.
• The top-performing sectors of the week were telecommunications, consumer discretionary, and materials. Those sectors that underperformed included utilities, energy, and technology.
• Last week was relatively quiet for economic updates. On Tuesday, the ISM Nonmanufacturing index bounced back from a slight drop in May, rising from 56.8 to 58.6. This result was better than expected and indicates that the service sectors of the economy remain confident.
• On Wednesday, the trade balance report showed strong net exports, which are expected to add to economic growth in the second quarter. This increase helped shrink the overall trade deficit to $46.2 billion.

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Morningstar Direct

What to look forward to
This will be a busy week for economic news.

On Tuesday, the consumer price indices will be released. The headline index, which includes energy and food, is expected to rise by 0.2 percent for May, the same as in April. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, are also expected to rise by 0.2 percent for May, up from a
0.1-percent increase in April. Annual rates for the headline index should increase from 2.5 percent to 2.7 percent in May, up from 2.5 percent in April on base effects. The core index is expected to increase by less, up 2.2 percent for May from 2.1 percent in April. These figures are above the Fed’s target range for inflation, so they will support a rate increase if they come in
as anticipated.

The producer price indices will be released on Wednesday. Headline inflation is expected to increase from 0.1 percent in April to 0.3 percent in May, while the core figure should hold steady at 0.2 percent. On an annual basis, the headline index is expected to increase from 2.6 percent in April to 2.9 percent in May, while core price growth is expected to hold steady at 2.3 percent. Cost pressures on business are expected to remain strong, which will also support Fed action. The question, then, is when those pressures will feed through to consumers.

On Thursday, the retail sales report is expected to show growth, with the headline number rising from a 0.2-percent increase in April to a 0.4-percent increase in May. Core sales, which exclude autos, are also expected to rise from 0.3 percent to 0.4 percent. These numbers reflect a strong level of spending growth. The continued rebound in consumer spending is likely to help support overall faster second-quarter growth, which will likely be well above that of the first quarter.

On Friday, the industrial production report is expected to show that growth has slowed, from 0.7 percent in April to 0.3 percent in May, while manufacturing growth is expected to decline from 0.5 percent to 0.3 percent. Industrial production has benefited from the continued rise in oil drilling, and longer-term manufacturing growth still remains solid.

We’ll also see the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey on Friday. It is expected to rise slightly—from 98 to 98.4—close to recent highs. This would signal continued high levels of consumer spending, although there may be some downside risk here on rising gas prices.

Finally, the regular meeting of the Fed’s Open Market Committee is this week, with the release of the statement and press conference on Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to raise rates again at this meeting, and such an increase is already priced in to markets. What will be key is what the Fed indicates about future rate hike expectations.

Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg Barclays US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg Barclays US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million.

Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Ave. Suite #304, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com.

Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.

© 2018 Commonwealth Financial Network®

Presented by Mark Gallagher

General market news
• The 10-year Treasury yield opened at 2.90 percent on Monday morning. This result was up from last week’s low of 2.75 percent, but it was well below the recent high of 3.12 percent. Meanwhile, the 30-year opened at 3.05 percent and the 2-year at 2.48 percent. Uncertainty with trade policy is causing some concerns globally and is pushing the yield curve flatter.
• The three major U.S. markets were mixed last week. The Nasdaq Composite led the way. It was up 1.65 percent as FANG stocks (i.e., Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google) helped bolster index performance. Energy also fared well, recovering from its sell-off in the week prior.
• Some of the mixed results were due to the geopolitical tensions that continue to grab the headlines. Trade tensions flared up yet again, as the U.S. announced plans to move forward with its efforts to restrict intellectual property. This will be carried out via investment restrictions, World Trade Organization litigation, and $50 billion in tariffs on Chinese products. In addition, there was news that the U.S. will impose 25-percent tariffs on imports from the European Union (EU), Canada, and Mexico. Italy also saw its fair share of political tension; Italian President Mattarella rejected the Five Star Movement and Lega parties’ choice for finance minister. He made this rejection over concerns that the government could push to exit the EU. The coalition deal by the Five Star and Lega parties was ultimately revised, but it did not include their selection, Paolo Savona, as finance minister.
• Last week was a relatively strong one in terms of economic news. On Tuesday, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 128, which is one of the highest levels seen in the past 18 years.
• On Wednesday, the second estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product growth declined modestly to 2.2 percent on an annualized basis. While the decline is disappointing, growth is still expected to pick up markedly in the second quarter.
• Finally, on Friday, the May employment report came in better than expected, with 223,000 new jobs added against expectations for 190,000. The underlying data was solid as well, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.8 percent and average hourly earnings increasing to 2.7 percent on a year-over-year basis.

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Morningstar Direct

What to look forward to
We will see two major economic news releases this week.

On Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management Nonmanufacturing index is expected to rise slightly, from 56.8 in April to 57.8 for May. This is a diffusion index, where values above 50 indicate expansion. As such, the rise would mean that an already robust service sector is getting even stronger. After a slow start to the year, services now appear to be accelerating, with healthy retail sales growth and regional surveys suggesting that continues. This improvement could mean that overall economic growth in the second quarter should be higher than that of the first quarter.

On Wednesday, the international trade report should worsen slightly, with the trade deficit dropping from $49 billion in March to $50.5 billion in April. There may be some upside risk here, however, as the advance goods trade report showed that deficit had narrowed a bit. With the dollar weaker than it was a year ago, exports still have a tailwind, but recent U.S. tariff policy may have started to slow export growth. In any event, trade should be roughly neutral for the economy as a whole in the second quarter, with any contribution being small.

Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg Barclays US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg Barclays US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million.

Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Ave. Suite #304, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com.

Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.

© 2018 Commonwealth Financial Network®

Presented by Mark Gallagher

General market news
• The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to as low as 2.79 percent early Tuesday, while the 30-year opened at 3.05 percent and the 2-year at 2.44 percent. The 10-year had been as high as 3.12 percent a little less than two weeks ago. The steepness of the yield curve (i.e., the spread between short and long rates) reached a new cycle low on Tuesday morning, with the spread between the 2-year and 10-year dropping to 41.5 basis points.
• The three major U.S. indices were up, although there was a mixed underlying story within the sectors. Up more than 1 percent, the Nasdaq Composite led the way, as technology stocks Microsoft, Netflix, and Apple were all major contributors to the S&P 500’s positive performance. Micron stock was also up, with the company announcing a $10 billion share buyback. The energy sector was the largest drag on the market as concerns mounted that OPEC and Russia will dial back their production cuts.
• There was some positive news surrounding trade talks between the U.S. and China. The two countries are looking at a deal to save ZTE in exchange for a change in firm management. Other points of discussion were a Chinese ramp-up in purchases of U.S. agriculture and potential U.S. tariffs on auto imports.
• The top-performing sectors were utilities, REITs, and technology. Those with the worst performance included energy, materials, and financials.
• Last week was relatively quiet on the economic news front. On Wednesday, new home sales showed a decline of 1.5 percent in April. On Thursday, existing home sales also showed weakness, dropping by 2.5 percent. Given increasing housing prices, low levels of supply, and rising mortgage rates, these measures of home ownership bear watching.
• On Friday, durable goods orders came in below expectations with a decline of 1.7 percent in the headline number. While this result was weaker than expected, the core figure, which strips out volatile transportation orders, was better than expected.

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Morningstar Direct

What to look forward to
This week’s economic news will give us a broad look at the economy.

On Thursday, the personal income and spending report is expected to show that income growth remained steady at 0.3 percent for April (the same as in March), while spending growth also remained steady at 0.4 percent. Given the inflation factor of 0.2 percent, these numbers would signal reasonable real growth rates. While some of the spending gain will come from rising gas prices, control group sales are expected to rise as well, suggesting that spending growth remains healthy.

On Friday, the employment report is expected to show job growth picked up from 164,000 in April to 190,000 in May. If so, this would be the highest level in the past two months, pushing the six-month average growth rate even higher. Much of the recent job growth has come from construction, manufacturing, and mining—a positive sign as these jobs are often high paying. Wage growth is expected to tick up from 0.1 percent in April to 0.3 percent in May, while the annual rate is expected to rise from 2.6 percent to 2.7 percent. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.9 percent. Overall, if the report meets expectations, it would suggest the jobs market continues to be very strong and provide grounds for the Federal Reserve to raise rates in June.

Finally, also on Friday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing index is expected to rise from 57.3 to 58.1. This is a diffusion index, where values above 50 indicate expansion. As such, this would be a very positive report. Regional surveys have been strong, and there may be some upside potential here.

Overall, if the reports come in as expected, they would signal accelerating growth and confirm that the first-quarter slowdown continues to subside.

Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg Barclays US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg Barclays US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million.

Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Ave. Suite #304, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com.

Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.

© 2018 Commonwealth Financial Network®