Presented by Mark Gallagher

General market news
• The yield on the 10-year Treasury was back down to its recent low of 2.79 percent late last week after reaching as high as 2.95 percent. It opened at 2.83 percent early Monday. The 30-year was as low as 3.07 percent last week before opening at 3.11 percent Monday morning. The 2-year was back down to 2.21 percent Monday after being as high as 2.28 percent late last week.
• Each of the three major U.S. indices, as well as the Russell 2000 Index, lost at least 1 percent last week. During the week, the market digested news of Jerome Powell’s first testimony before Congress. The newly appointed chair of the Federal Reserve was candid in his comments on the economy, which he believes to be strong. His testimony seems to have led investors to believe that he may be more hawkish in raising rates.
• Other major news affecting the markets was President Trump’s proposed 25-percent tariff on steel and 10-percent tariff on aluminum. The move has many questioning what is ahead for NAFTA and other trade agreements.
• The economic data released last week was a mixed bag; the hard figures were weak, while the soft business and consumer confidence measures were strong. On Monday, new home sales declined sharply, against expectations for a modest increase.
• On Tuesday, durable goods orders declined at both the headline and core level. Also on Tuesday, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index surged to a 17-year high, despite volatility in the equity market.
• On Wednesday, the second estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product declined, as expected, to 2.5-percent growth, down from the initial estimate of 2.6 percent. Even with this minor downward revision, the economy was healthy in 2017, growing at 2.3 percent on a real basis.
• On Thursday, the personal income and spending reports were both largely in line with expectations. Also on Thursday, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing index rose to a 13-year high, which should help spur additional growth in manufacturing to begin the year.

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Morningstar Direct

What to look forward to
We’ll see three major economic reports this week, which will give us a look at the service sector, trade, and the job market.

On Monday, the ISM Nonmanufacturing index was released. It did better than expected, dropping slightly from 59.9 in January to 59.5 for February, against expectations for a drop to 59. Although this index has been volatile in recent months, the trend has remained positive. Because this is a diffusion index, values above 50 indicate expansion, so even with the decline, the index still indicates strong growth. With the ISM Manufacturing index’s good results last week, this result shows business confidence remains strong across the board.

On Wednesday, the international trade report is expected to show that the trade deficit improved slightly, from $53.1 billion in December to $52.6 billion in January, on a rise in exports due to the weak dollar and strong global growth. There is some downside risk here, but if the numbers come in as expected, trade could be less of a drag than expected on economic growth in the first quarter of 2018.

Finally, on Friday, the employment report is expected to show continued job growth, with 200,000 jobs added in February, the same as in January. Wage growth is also expected to stay constant at a healthy 0.3 percent. Meanwhile, labor demand, as expressed by the average workweek, is expected to rise from 34.3 hours to 34.4 hours. There may be some upside risk here, as jobless claims have continued to drop and employment surveys have remained strong. Overall, if the report is as expected, it will be another positive signal for continued growth.

There’s one more piece of economic news to watch for: whether the White House follows through on the steel and aluminum tariffs President Trump announced last week. Markets around the world pulled back on the news, and any follow-through could result in more volatility.

Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg Barclays US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg Barclays US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million.

Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Ave. Suite #304, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com.
Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.

© 2018 Commonwealth Financial Network®

Presented by Mark Gallagher

A bumpy ride for the markets
February was a rocky month for the stock market. After plunging roughly 10 percent mid-month, the three major U.S. indices were able to make up some ground. The Nasdaq Composite finished down 1.74 percent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index lost 3.96 percent and 3.69 percent, respectively. The first substantial market decline we’ve experienced in some time, it was driven largely by concerns over rising inflation and interest rates. Although worrying, this level of volatility is normal by historical standards.

Faster earnings growth continued to support the markets in February. In fact, fourth-quarter 2017 earnings came in well above expectations. According to FactSet, as of February 23, the estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 was 14.8 percent.

Technical factors were also supportive of equity markets. All three U.S. indices were above their respective 200-day moving averages at month-end, despite the earlier drop.

International equities also had it rough. The MSCI EAFE Index of developed markets declined 4.51 percent, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index was down 4.60 percent. Rising global interest rates fueled much of the volatility, even as economic fundamentals remained supportive. Technicals also were supportive, as both indices ended the month above their respective trend lines.

There was no escape for fixed income either, as rising interest rates dragged down bond prices. The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index experienced a 0.95-percent decline. Typically less affected by interest rate changes, high-yield bonds lost 0.85 percent.

Economic growth continues, but at a slower pace
U.S. gross domestic product growth for the fourth quarter of 2017 was revised down to 2.5 percent, primarily due to a larger-than-expected increase in imports. Still, there were plenty of bright spots.

The economy added 200,000 jobs in January, average hourly wage growth hit the highest level since 2009, and unemployment remained unchanged at 4.1 percent.

Meanwhile, both major consumer sentiment surveys increased by more than expected in January, despite rising gas prices and stock market turbulence. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index is now at levels last seen in 2000 (see Figure 1).

Figure 1. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, 1998–2018

Businesses were confident as well. The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing surveys moved to 13-year highs in February, indicating continued business investment and expansion. The hard data was somewhat weaker than expected, though. Core durable goods orders, which exclude volatile aircraft purchases, fell 0.3 percent.

Given this strong environment, markets expect the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates by 25 basis points at the March meeting.

Housing a drag
Despite improvements elsewhere, housing growth slowed. Homebuilder confidence remained near multiyear highs, but home sales fell for the second month in a row. A combination of rising mortgage rates and low supply levels likely contributed to the decline. Increases in housing starts and permits—by 9.7 percent and 7.4 percent, respectively—in January should help supply going forward.

Political risks recede—for the moment
Politics, a major source of risk for the markets, have started to recede. In the U.S., following the brief government shutdown on February 8, Congress cut a deal both to lift the debt ceiling until September 2019 and to increase spending.

In Asia, with all eyes on the U.S. and North Korean delegations at the Winter Olympics, a willingness for diplomatic talks was a de-escalation of the fiery rhetoric between the countries.

In Germany, Angela Merkel’s attempts to form a coalition government and end a political state of limbo were finally successful after months of negotiations.

Of course, political risk can reemerge at any time. Notably, on March 1, an announcement that the U.S. planned to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports sparked worries about a trade war, sending markets into decline.

Real slowdown or blip?
February was a more difficult month than we have seen in some time. That said, growth remains in healthy territory. Plus, strong corporate sales and profits should continue to support the financial markets. What this month’s volatility gave us was a wake-up call, reminding investors that markets can go down as well as up.

This is just a return to normal, however, which is a good thing. The U.S. economy and financial markets are well positioned for long-term growth. A well-diversified portfolio designed around your financial objectives and time horizon remains the best way to pursue your goals.

All information according to Bloomberg, unless stated otherwise.

Disclosure: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. All indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly into an index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. It excludes closed markets and those shares in otherwise free markets that are not purchasable by foreigners. The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index representing securities that are SEC-registered, taxable, and dollar-denominated. It covers the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market, with index components for a combination of the Bloomberg Barclays government and corporate securities, mortgage-backed pass-through securities, and asset-backed securities. The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index covers the USD-denominated, non-investment-grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high-yield if the middle rating of Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below.

Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Ave. Suite #304, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com.

Authored by Brad McMillan, CFA®, CAIA, MAI, managing principal, chief investment officer, and Sam Millette, fixed income analyst, at Commonwealth Financial Network®.

© 2018 Commonwealth Financial Network®

Presented by Mark Gallagher

General market news
• The yield on the 10-year Treasury opened at 2.89 percent early Tuesday morning, in line with where it opened early last week. The 30-year, at 3.15 percent, is seeing more resistance than is the short end of the curve. This will likely make it harder for longer rates to break significantly higher in the near term.
• All three major U.S. indices were up more than 4 percent last week. The S&P 500 saw gains in all five trading sessions. Further, every sector was up for the period, with technology, financials, and industrials leading the way.
• Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index data reaffirmed that inflation is moving higher in 2018. This data aligned with wage data from two weeks prior, which is what helped spur the sell-off. Despite confirmation of the inflationary trend, equity markets recouped some of their losses from the sell-off, as investors responded favorably to positive earnings news.
• Indeed, earnings guidance continued to be strong. With approximately 80 percent of S&P 500 companies reporting, the blended earnings growth rate for the fourth quarter is currently 15.2 percent, according to FactSet. This is the highest level since the third quarter of 2011. In addition, nearly all companies that have reported thus far have seen a positive surprise in sales.
• A number of key data points were released last week. As mentioned above, we saw Consumer Price Index data on Wednesday. The index increased by 2.1 percent on an annual basis, exceeding expectations for 1.9-percent growth. This was followed by the Producer Price Index on Thursday, which also came in higher than expected. Given the healthy economy and rising wages, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be paying close attention to accelerating inflation.
• On Wednesday, retail sales for January came in lower than anticipated, declining 0.3 percent rather than growing the expected 0.2 percent. Core sales, which strip out volatile auto and gas sales, stayed flat during the month. While this was disappointing after strong growth in December, seasonality may have affected the data.
• Finally, on Friday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey surprised to the upside. It rose to 99.9, beating expectations for a slight decline to 95.5. This is positive, given the recent stock market volatility, and shows that consumer confidence remains strong.

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Morningstar Direct

What to look forward to
The week ahead will be a slow one for economic data.

The only real news will be the release of the minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets will be looking for confirmation that the Fed expects to hike rates by another 25 basis points at the March meeting. The statement from the January meeting was relatively optimistic, so the minutes should provide some color as to how many participants shared that view.

Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg Barclays US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg Barclays US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million.

Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Ave. Suite #304, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com.

Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.

© 2018 Commonwealth Financial Network®

Presented by Mark Gallagher

General market news
• The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which has been testing higher levels over the past two weeks, opened north of 2.80 percent on Monday morning. Although the short-term trend has been higher, we’ll have to wait to see if the 10-year can break new levels. With the 30-year barely above 3 percent, it might be difficult.
• The three major U.S. indices were down more than 5 percent last week, and both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 officially entered correction territory. The largest declines occurred in the financials, telecom, and energy sectors, as the price of oil continued to fall. The top performers included utilities, materials, and real estate.
• The reasons for the market pullback include inflation fears, rising interest rates, and higher bond yields. A bump in the hourly wage growth rate to 2.9 percent in the January jobs report may have stemmed fears that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will accelerate its planned rate hikes (the market currently expects three hikes this year). Nevertheless, as the Fed continues winding down the balance sheet under the leadership of a new chair, Jerome Powell, the belief is that the economy will now have to stand on its own. The days of artificially low rates may be over.
• Earnings, on the other hand, have continued to come in strong. Of the nearly three-quarters of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far, more than 80 percent of them experienced better-than-expected profits in the fourth quarter.
• Last week was relatively quiet in terms of major economic news. On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management’s Nonmanufacturing composite recovered from a surprise decline in December, rising to 59.9 from 55.9. Confidence for both manufacturers and the service industry is near multiyear highs.
• On Wednesday, consumer credit rose by less than expected. The savings rate is at a 12-year low, so we’ll want to keep an eye on expanding credit use.

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Morningstar Direct

What to look forward to
This week’s economic data will cover wide slices of the economy.

On Wednesday, we’ll learn about consumer prices. Headline inflation, which includes food and energy, is expected to increase by 0.4 percent in January, up from a 0.2-percent increase in December, on higher gasoline and natural gas prices. On an annual basis, however, headline inflation is expected to decline—from 2.1 percent to 2 percent—due to base effects from one year ago. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, are expected to show a smaller increase, dropping from 0.3 percent in December to 0.2 percent in January. This would take the annual rate down to 1.7 percent.

We will also see the retail sales report on Wednesday. The headline number, which includes autos, is expected to drop from 0.4-percent growth in December to 0.3-percent growth in January. This would be due to a decline in auto sales, as the post-hurricane replacement sales wind down. Core retail sales, which exclude autos, are expected to increase from a 0.4-percent gain in December to a 0.5-percent gain in January. Much of this increase, though, would come from higher gasoline prices rather than higher spending on other items.

On Thursday, the industrial production report is expected to decline sharply, from a 0.9-percent increase in December to a 0.2-percent increase in January. Much of this decline, however, would be due to more normal weather conditions, just as last month’s increase resulted from higher utilities output caused by unusually cold weather. As such, this indicator would remain at a healthy level. Manufacturing output growth is expected to rise from 0.1 percent in December to 0.3 percent in January, as this sector continues to benefit from a weaker dollar and strong global demand.

Turning to the housing sector, on Thursday, the National Association of Home Builders survey is expected to remain at a strong 72, which is consistent with continued growth. On Friday, housing starts, which declined in December to an annual rate of 1.19 million, are expected to rebound in January to a rate of 1.25 million. Such increase would be due to a rise in building permits, which reached a 10-year high in December.

Finally, on Friday, the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey is expected to drop back marginally, from 95.7 in January to 95.5 in February. Strong job growth is expected to support this index, although the recent stock market pullback might present some downside risk.

Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Bloomberg Barclays US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Bloomberg Barclays US Municipal Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million.

Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Ave. Suite #304, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com.

Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.

© 2018 Commonwealth Financial Network®